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Libya Inches Toward Failed State Status, says MEA Risk

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The collection of problems facing Libya today seems so insurmountable that it makes it a prime candidate for failed statehood status, based on MEA Risk taxonomy. Indeed all the data collected by MEA Risk’s Critical Incidents Tracker from war-torn Libya shows continued deterioration of the situation there. Although politically-motivated fatalities dropped from a peak of 589 in October 2014 to 344 in November 2014, according to MEA Risk’s Critical Incidents Tracker, the country’s CIncidents Index, which measures the intensity of the collective problems, has been on the rise for the third consecutive month, nearing the Failed State status. Indeed, the month of November 2014 saw the rise of the CIncidents Index to 2.81, from 2.73, which would categorize Libya as an “Extreme High-Risk Zone.” But as we enter December 2014, the CIncidents Index reached a new high of 3.01, already with nearly 200 fatalities. The country is within half a point from moving into the category of ‘Failed State.’

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The North Africa Journal is a leading English-language publication focused on North Africa. The Journal covers primarily the Maghreb region and expands its general coverage to the Sahel, Egypt, and beyond, when events in those regions affect the broader North Africa geography. The Journal does not have any affiliation with any institution and has been independent since its founding in 1996. Our position is to always bring our best analysis of events affecting the region, and remain as neutral as humanly possible. Our coverage is not limited to one single topic, but ranges from economic and political affairs, to security, defense, social and environmental issues. We rely on our full staff analysts and editors to bring you best-in-class analysis. We also work with sister company MEA Risk LLC, to leverage the presence on the ground of a solid network of contributors and experts. Information on MEA Risk can be found at