North Africa’s Security
Security | Defense | Terrorism
Morocco Faces Balancing Test Over Potential Gaza Security Role
A reported plan for a Moroccan military outpost in Gaza is raising questions about Rabat’s regional strategy. While participation in a multinational stabilization force could be framed as humanitarian and security support, a visible troop presence inside an Israeli-controlled area risks political backlash at home and abroad. The proposal highlights the tension between Morocco’s ties to Israel and its longstanding positioning as a supporter of Palestinian interests.
SECURITY & DEFENSE
Sudan’s Army Gains Ground in Kordofan as War Strains Power and Food Systems
Sudan’s army is gaining ground in North Kordofan, securing key transport routes that could support a broader push west toward Darfur. But battlefield advances are unfolding alongside a deepening national crisis, with power grid failures, disrupted agriculture and local conflicts compounding the country’s instability. But this latest military momentum is unlikely to resolve Sudan’s widening humanitarian and infrastructure challenges.
Sahel: Niger Emerges as Key Battleground as JNIM and Islamic State Collide
A defection, a blood feud, and overlapping territorial ambitions are pushing JNIM and the Islamic State Sahel Province into direct competition across western Niger. The outcome around the region of Dosso could determine whether Sahelian jihadist violence stays fragmented — or consolidates into a wider regional arc.
Sahel: How Gold and Jihadist Violence Are Redrawing the Guinea-Mali Border
Along the Guinea-Mali border, jihadist violence and a fast-moving gold economy are colliding to reshape security, trade and governance. In the Siguiri-Kourémalé corridor, formal border controls, informal crossings and illicit mining networks are all pulling the region in different directions.
Gulf crisis: War Widens in the Gulf Region
Yemeni missile and drone strikes on Saudi Arabia’s Abha airport, Iranian attacks on tankers near the Strait of Hormuz, and a US-Iran military exchange are compounding aviation and shipping risks across the Gulf, with no resolution in sight.
Mali’s Jihadist-Separatist Alliance Pushes Toward Anéfis as Fighting Enters Its Sixth Day
Mali’s JNIM-FLA alliance has pushed into its sixth day of fighting for Anéfis after ambushing a Malian-Russian convoy near Tabrichat and downing a helicopter, as a second relief convoy heads toward the besieged garrison.
Libya: Pakistan Steps In as Surprise Broker to Unify Libya
Pakistan has quietly begun mediating between Libya’s rival authorities in the east and west, pushing a three‑year power‑sharing transition backed by Saudi Arabia and coordinated with the United States in a bid to reunify the country’s fragmented institutions.
German Think Tank Accuses the UAE of Destabilizing Africa
A report published by Germany’s Stiftung Wissenschaft und Politik accuses the United Arab Emirates of playing a destabilizing role in several African conflicts through support for armed groups, logistical networks, and regional interventions. The report focuses particularly on Sudan, Libya, the Horn of Africa, and Yemen, while also criticizing Western governments for avoiding direct public criticism of Abu Dhabi.
Tunisian Army Denies Rumors of a Power Grab
Tunisia’s military has publicly reaffirmed its neutrality amid growing political tensions and speculation about its role in the country’s future. The rare statement from the Ministry of Defense comes as Tunisia faces mounting economic, political, and institutional pressures, raising questions about the military’s relationship with President Kais Saied and its role in preserving state stability.
Mali: After Kidal, The War Comes to Bamako
Mali’s military government lost Kidal to a joint FLA-JNIM offensive on April 26, 2026, after Russian Africa Corps personnel and Malian troops withdrew under rebel escort. The fall of the city, retaken by Bamako with Russian support in November 2023, exposes the limits of the junta’s sovereignty narrative and raises serious questions about the durability of Mali’s security model.
Mali: Russian-linked Forces Under Drone Pressure in Northern Mali
Armed groups in northern Mali are shifting toward repeatable FPV drone strikes against Malian army and Russian-linked Africa Corps positions. Recent attacks in Anéfis and Aguelhok indicate a tactical evolution that challenges the assumption of operational sanctuary in the Kidal region.
INSURGENCIES & TERRORISM
Sahel: Niger Emerges as Key Battleground as JNIM and Islamic State Collide
A defection, a blood feud, and overlapping territorial ambitions are pushing JNIM and the Islamic State Sahel Province into direct competition across western Niger. The outcome around the region of Dosso could determine whether Sahelian jihadist violence stays fragmented — or consolidates into a wider regional arc.
Sahel: How Gold and Jihadist Violence Are Redrawing the Guinea-Mali Border
Along the Guinea-Mali border, jihadist violence and a fast-moving gold economy are colliding to reshape security, trade and governance. In the Siguiri-Kourémalé corridor, formal border controls, informal crossings and illicit mining networks are all pulling the region in different directions.
Mali: After Kidal, The War Comes to Bamako
Mali’s military government lost Kidal to a joint FLA-JNIM offensive on April 26, 2026, after Russian Africa Corps personnel and Malian troops withdrew under rebel escort. The fall of the city, retaken by Bamako with Russian support in November 2023, exposes the limits of the junta’s sovereignty narrative and raises serious questions about the durability of Mali’s security model.
Niger: Armed Attacks Target Military Bases in Tahoua
Armed militants launched coordinated assaults on military facilities in Tahoua, a strategic city in northwestern Niger. The attacks targeted Air Base 401 at the local airport and the headquarters of the 42nd Inter‑Arms Battalion. Nigerien forces repelled both assaults after intense fighting, leaving several soldiers lightly wounded and multiple attackers dead, with five suspects arrested.
Nigeria: More than 160 people killed in Muslim communities in Kwara State
More than 160 people were killed in predominantly Muslim farming communities in Kwara State, Nigeria, after villagers reportedly refused to accept an extremist group’s strict religious rule.
Niger: Roadside Bomb Kills Civilians Near Baroua in Diffa Region
A mixed passenger and cargo vehicle hit an improvised explosive device near Baroua in Niger’s Diffa region, killing at least eight people and injuring others. The attack highlights how mines and roadside bombs are tightening the squeeze on civilians across the Sahel, disrupting travel, trade, and basic access to services.
Niger Airport Attack Deepens Sahel’s Security and Diplomatic Strains
An overnight assault on the air base embedded in Niamey’s international airport has pushed Niger’s crisis into the capital, wounding soldiers and damaging civilian aircraft. The United States has ordered non‑essential diplomatic staff to leave, while other governments tighten “avoid all travel” warnings, signaling a broader reassessment of risk. As Niamey accuses foreign states and militants claim responsibility, the episode underscores how security, regime politics, and great‑power rivalry now collide in the Sahel.
Mali: Gold Mining Site in Sikasso Region Hit by Armed Group
An armed attack on the Morila gold mine in southern Mali caused material damage and forced a temporary suspension of operations. Security forces were deployed to regain control of the site, and employees held during the incident were released unharmed. The attack highlights ongoing security risks facing economic infrastructure across the Sahel.
Sahel: Jihadist Attack Kills Local Prefect in Southwestern Niger
A jihadist attack in southwestern Niger has killed the prefect of Torodi along with several members of his family, marking the first time a sitting prefect has been killed in an assault in his own district. The attack underscores growing insecurity near the border with Burkina Faso, where violence has led to school closures, population displacement, and a prolonged state of emergency.
Sahel: Rising Attacks on Military and Economic Targets Deepen Mali’s Instability
Mali is closing the year under mounting security strain as jihadist groups expand attacks on military convoys, fuel supply routes, and foreign-linked economic assets. Recent operations near the Guinean border and across central regions highlight a shift toward economic disruption and targeted abductions, raising concerns about stability and investment risks heading into 2026.