North Africa’s Security
Security | Defense | Terrorism
Sudan’s Army Gains Ground in Kordofan as War Strains Power and Food Systems
Sudan’s army is gaining ground in North Kordofan, securing key transport routes that could support a broader push west toward Darfur. But battlefield advances are unfolding alongside a deepening national crisis, with power grid failures, disrupted agriculture and local conflicts compounding the country’s instability. But this latest military momentum is unlikely to resolve Sudan’s widening humanitarian and infrastructure challenges.
SECURITY & DEFENSE
Morocco Allegations Reignite Spain’s Pegasus Debate
New reporting has revived scrutiny of the 2021 Pegasus intrusion targeting Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s phone, focusing on the Ceuta visit as a potential operational opening and renewing debate over attribution, accountability, and Spain’s wider relationship with Morocco, including questions raised by Morocco’s growing security ties with Israel.
Egypt and Turkey Test Pragmatic Rapprochement After Years of Estrangement
Egypt and Turkey are cautiously rebuilding relations after years of estrangement, driven by shifting regional dynamics and converging state interests. Recent defense-industrial cooperation and renewed diplomatic engagement point to a pragmatic recalibration rather than full political reconciliation, as both countries test whether managed coordination can replace prolonged rivalry.
Egypt Deepens Defense-Industrial Engagement With China
Egypt is advancing defense-industrial cooperation with China through localized production, joint exercises, and expanded military training links. Developments during 2025 point to a pragmatic effort by Cairo to diversify suppliers and strengthen domestic manufacturing capacity, while Beijing cautiously broadens engagement beyond conventional arms sales.
Southern Libya Boils Over: Three Haftar Soldiers Killed in Border Raid Near Niger
Three soldiers loyal to Libyan commander Khalifa Haftar were killed and several others captured in coordinated attacks on border posts near Niger, underscoring how southern Libya has become a key fault line in the country’s fractured security landscape. Fighters claiming to represent “revolutionaries of the South” say they are targeting Haftar’s forces over dire living conditions and alleged resource plunder, as cross-border armed groups test the limits of state control from Al-Tum to the Salvador Pass.
Sudan Conflict: Egypt’s Military Escalation After the Fall of El‑Fasher
Egypt appears to have shifted from diplomatic broker to covert combatant in Sudan’s war, with new evidence pointing to drone and air strikes launched from a secret base in the Western Desert. Satellite imagery, flight logs and investigations indicate that Egypt has established a covert airbase at the East Oweinat agricultural project, roughly 65 kilometers from the Sudanese border, to launch strikes against Rapid Support Forces (RSF) targets deep inside Sudan. The operations mark Egypt’s evolution from cautious mediator to active, if deniable, belligerent on the side of Sudan’s Armed Forces, as the conflict becomes the focal point of widening regional proxy rivalries involving the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Qatar.
Niger Airport Attack Deepens Sahel’s Security and Diplomatic Strains
An overnight assault on the air base embedded in Niamey’s international airport has pushed Niger’s crisis into the capital, wounding soldiers and damaging civilian aircraft. The United States has ordered non‑essential diplomatic staff to leave, while other governments tighten “avoid all travel” warnings, signaling a broader reassessment of risk. As Niamey accuses foreign states and militants claim responsibility, the episode underscores how security, regime politics, and great‑power rivalry now collide in the Sahel.
Defense: Mauritania and Spain Use Naval Exercises to Bolster Atlantic Maritime Security
Mauritania and Spain have carried out joint naval exercises off Nouadhibou, built around a port visit by the Spanish patrol vessel Furor and focused on navigation safety and operational coordination. The drills, paired with visits to Mauritanian military installations, signal a tightening maritime partnership in Atlantic waters that are central to security, fisheries, and migration routes. Officials in Nouakchott present the cooperation as part of a broader effort to strengthen maritime stability and protect shared interests at sea.
Egypt’s Red Lines in the Horn of Africa Are Becoming Explicit
Egypt’s expanding posture in Somalia and its firm stance on Sudan reveal a coherent security doctrine taking shape along its southern and southeastern perimeter. Cairo is drawing explicit red lines against state collapse, territorial fragmentation, and the emergence of parallel authorities in strategically sensitive areas of the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea basin.
Egypt Moves to Shore Up Somalia as Regional Alignments Shift in the Horn of Africa
Egypt has expanded the scope of its military and security engagement in Somalia following Israel’s recognition of Somaliland, a self-declared breakaway region on the Gulf of Aden. Egyptian officials view the move as part of a broader shift in Horn of Africa geopolitics that could affect Red Sea security, Nile water negotiations, and regional power balances.
Mali: Gold Mining Site in Sikasso Region Hit by Armed Group
An armed attack on the Morila gold mine in southern Mali caused material damage and forced a temporary suspension of operations. Security forces were deployed to regain control of the site, and employees held during the incident were released unharmed. The attack highlights ongoing security risks facing economic infrastructure across the Sahel.
INSURGENCIES & TERRORISM
Mali: JNIM raids Bamako in direct threat to military junta
On Tuesday, 17 September 2024, Bamako, the capital of Mali, was the target of coordinated attacks claimed by the JNIM. At least two military sites, including a gendarmerie training facility, were raided as early as 5 a.m. The targeted sites were the Faladié...
Tunisia: Harsh Conditions for Migrants in North Africa as they Seek Path to Italy
Nearly 80% of migrants in Tunisia are exclusively interested in migrating to Italy. The finding may be intuitive given the geographical location of Tunisia and its proximity to Italy, but it also reflects that fact that Tunisia is not seen as the final destination for most migrants. Migrants say their struggles in Tunisia makes Italy inevitably more attractive.
Niger: Rebel group attacks pipeline, warns Chinese contractor to stay clear
The Patriotic Front of Liberation (FPL), a rebel group based between northern Niger and southern Libya, claims to have destroyed a section of Niger’s pipeline, and issued threats against the Chinese firm managing the project.
Mali: Al Qaeda attacks rebel convoy in the Ouagadou forest
By MondAfrique: A column of armed vehicles from the Permanent Strategic Framework (CSP), the Touareg rebel coalition driven out of Kidal, was attacked by fighters from the Support Group for Islam and Muslims (GSIM) on Friday in the Ouagadou forest, while that it was...
Bloody Sunday: The indiscriminate killing of Muslim and Catholic worshipers in Burkina Faso
Sunday, 25 February was a bloody day for religious groups in Burkina Faso. Two attacks against a church and a mosque confirm the utter instability of the northern and eastern regions of the country. In Essakane-village, in the northeastern Burkina Faso, a terrorist...
Niger: Two soldiers killed in insurgent attack in Diffa
Mali: Katiba Mecina insurgents raid military camp in Niono, repelled
Sahel: Wagner Group and Mali army engaging in mass murder and forced displacement of northern populations
The Wagner Group is wracking havoc in northern Mali, with actions that hint on ongoing efforts to depopulate the region. Human rights abuses against local population are being committed by both the Malian national army and its Russian contractors from the Wagner...
Sahel: 29 Niger soldiers killed by suspected jihadists
Twenty-nine soldiers were killed in western Niger in an attack by suspected jihadists, the defence ministry said on Monday night, declaring a three-day national mourning period. The soldiers were targeted using "improvised explosive devices and kamikaze vehicles by...
Sahel: Suspected GSIM militants attack boat on the Niger River in Mali
A passenger boat on the Niger River in northern Mali was attacked on Thursday by suspected jihadists, the Malian army said on social media. "At around 11:00 am (1100 GMT), armed terrorist groups... attacked a Comanav boat" in the Gourma-Rharous area, it said,...