The Political Page
Europe’s New Migration Rules Shift Pressure South to North Africa
As the European Union prepares to implement its revised migration framework in mid-2026, coordination between Italy and North African states is already reshaping how migration is managed across the Mediterranean. The new approach shifts operational responsibility away from EU territory and toward transit countries in the Maghreb, with a growing focus on returns rather than border enforcement. While framed as regional cooperation, the emerging system raises questions about governance, funding transparency, and the capacity of transit states to absorb migrants who are unable to move forward or return home. The result may be fewer arrivals in Europe, but increased pressure and instability along the southern Mediterranean.
How the US Intervention in Venezuela is Reviving Global South Fears of Power Politics
The US military operation that captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro is being closely watched across Africa, not as a regional Latin American event, but as part of a broader pattern of great-power behavior toward the Global South. African institutions, governments, and analysts are reading the raid alongside long-standing grievances over external intervention, from France’s contested role in the Sahel to Russia’s expanding security footprint and the growing presence of other outside actors. While few African voices defend Maduro’s record, many express concern that the seizure of a sitting president without multilateral authorization reinforces a system where sovereignty and international law apply unevenly. The episode has intensified debates across the continent about precedent, deterrence, and vulnerability, particularly for resource-rich and non-aligned states, and has revived fears that hierarchy, rather than rules, still shapes how power is exercised in international affairs.
Burkina Faso Faces New Security Tensions Amid Coup Allegations
Burkina Faso saw a surge in political tension after warnings of a possible destabilization attempt triggered overnight mobilizations in Ouagadougou and Bobo-Dioulasso. Security forces placed several military sites on alert as arrests were reported and social media claims pointed to internal and external actors. While the scale of the threat remains unclear, the episode reflects persistent instability under the country’s military transition and raises questions about internal cohesion, governance, and the long-term outlook for political order.
Libya: Turkey is Here to Stay, Abandons Exit Strategy
Turkey’s parliament has approved a 24-month extension of its military deployment in Libya through early 2028, marking a shift from emergency intervention to formalized long-term strategic positioning. The extension reflects calculated power projection rather than crisis response, with Turkey consolidating assets at Al-Watiya airbase to secure leverage across Eastern Mediterranean maritime disputes, energy corridors, and regional competition dynamics. The mandate complicates the stalled 5+5 withdrawal process by providing diplomatic cover for other foreign actors to maintain their presence, creating a reinforcing cycle where each deployment justifies the others and transforms temporary stabilization into indefinite strategic competition by proxy.
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Nigeria: Questions Mount Over U.S. Airstrikes in Northern Nigeria
The U.S. airstrikes carried out in northern Nigeria on Christmas Day have triggered confusion and skepticism across the region. Conflicting statements from Washington and Abuja, uncertainty over the identity of the targeted groups, and reports from strike locations where no militants were found have raised serious questions about the operation’s objectives. In an already fragile security environment, the lack of clarity risks adding instability rather than addressing Nigeria’s complex security challenges.
Tunisia: Leading Labor Union in Turmoil
Tunisia’s historic labor union, the UGTT, is facing one of the most serious internal crises in its modern history. Deep divisions within the leadership, questions over legitimacy, and mounting pressure from President Kaïs Saïed have pushed the organization into open turmoil. The possible resignation of Secretary General Noureddine Tabboubi comes as the state moves to strip the union of its traditional role in wage negotiations and social dialogue, signaling a broader effort to marginalize independent labor power. As internal factions clash over leadership, strategy, and the timing of a general strike, the future role of the UGTT as a counterweight in Tunisian political life is increasingly uncertain.
Libya: Protesters Gather at UN Mission in Janzour Demanding Accelerated Elections, Warning of National Collapse
Protesters representing political parties and civil society groups gathered at the UN mission in Janzour demanding immediate implementation of the electoral roadmap and simultaneous presidential and parliamentary elections in April 2026. The demonstrators warned that continued delays would push Libya toward comprehensive collapse and chaos, holding UNSMIL and international actors accountable for deteriorating conditions. They called for elections under the existing dual-government structure, citing successful municipal elections as precedent, and urged escalated civil disobedience to pressure entrenched political institutions.
Rights Groups Warn of Widening Restrictions on Freedoms in Tunisia
Tunisia’s human rights landscape continues to draw scrutiny as a leading rights organization warns of expanding legal and institutional constraints on civil liberties. A new annual assessment points to the growing use of restrictive legislation, judicial pressure, and security-based governance to regulate political expression, social activism, and media activity. While formal legal structures remain in place, the report argues that the practical exercise of rights is increasingly limited, raising questions about the durability of the rule of law and civic space in the country.
U.S. Immigration Policy and the Changing Landscape of Africa-U.S. Travel
In 2026, U.S. visa policy is entering a more restrictive phase for large parts of Africa and the Middle East. Countries including Egypt, Morocco, Nigeria, South Africa, Ghana, and Zimbabwe now face higher application costs, expanded biometric requirements, mandatory disclosure of social media and digital histories, and longer processing timelines. At the same time, several Sahel states have responded with reciprocal measures, suspending or banning visas for U.S. citizens. What began as a security-driven adjustment to immigration screening has evolved into a broader diplomatic signal, reshaping mobility, bilateral relations, and perceptions of U.S. engagement across Africa and the Middle East.
Libya Enters 2026 With the Same Political Fragmentation and Sustain Bad Foreign Influence
As Libya approaches 2026, the country remains locked in a prolonged political impasse marked by competing authorities, delayed elections, and sustained foreign involvement. Rival governments and security structures continue to operate in parallel, limiting the ability of Libyan institutions to exercise unified control. Regional and international actors remain deeply embedded in Libya’s political and security environment, shaping outcomes through strategic alliances and informal arrangements. While large-scale conflict has been contained, the absence of a nationally driven political settlement leaves Libya’s sovereignty constrained and its long-term stability uncertain.
Tunis Appeals Court Upholds Prison Sentence Against Opposition Leader Abir Moussi
A Tunis appeals court has confirmed a two-year prison sentence against opposition leader Abir Moussi, upholding a conviction linked to allegations of digital misinformation and defamation. The ruling, tied to a case initiated by Tunisia’s election authority, comes amid a wider use of legal provisions governing online speech in politically sensitive cases.
The UAE’s Growing Role in African Conflict Zones
Saudi–Emirati tensions over Yemen have reignited a debate about how the United Arab Emirates projects power beyond the Gulf, particularly across Africa and the Maghreb. The public rupture with Saudi Arabia over Yemen has drawn attention to a broader pattern in which Abu Dhabi is accused of using proxy actors, military support, media influence, and selective alliances to shape outcomes in fragile conflict zones. From Libya and Sudan to the Western Sahara file, the UAE has emerged as a consequential external actor whose involvement often intersects with local rivalries, unresolved conflicts, and competing regional interests.
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