Maghreb Edition
MEA Risk Brief: April 10, 2018: The commander of the pro-eastern government Libyan National Army, General Khalifa Haftar, is reported to have suffered a heart attack. He has been transferred to Jordan for intensive care.
Morocco is facing its largest wave of unrest in years, with mass protests erupting across major cities demanding better hospitals, schools, and an end to corruption.
Across Sudan, Libya, Yemen, and the Maghreb, the United Arab Emirates is encountering rising diplomatic friction as regional powers push back against policies seen as destabilizing or misaligned with their security interests. The UAE is facing growing tensions involving Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Algeria, while sustained scrutiny over Sudan and Yemen is reshaping perceptions of Emirati influence.
As the European Union prepares to implement its revised migration framework in mid-2026, coordination between Italy and North African states is already reshaping how migration is managed across the Mediterranean. The new approach shifts operational responsibility away from EU territory and toward transit countries in the Maghreb, with a growing focus on returns rather than border enforcement. While framed as regional cooperation, the emerging system raises questions about governance, funding transparency, and the capacity of transit states to absorb migrants who are unable to move forward or return home. The result may be fewer arrivals in Europe, but increased pressure and instability along the southern Mediterranean.
Turkey’s parliament has approved a 24-month extension of its military deployment in Libya through early 2028, marking a shift from emergency intervention to formalized long-term strategic positioning. The extension reflects calculated power projection rather than crisis response, with Turkey consolidating assets at Al-Watiya airbase to secure leverage across Eastern Mediterranean maritime disputes, energy corridors, and regional competition dynamics. The mandate complicates the stalled 5+5 withdrawal process by providing diplomatic cover for other foreign actors to maintain their presence, creating a reinforcing cycle where each deployment justifies the others and transforms temporary stabilization into indefinite strategic competition by proxy.
