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Arezki’s Take: There have been so many conferences organized by Libya’s North African neighbors, European nations, the UN and others, looking at ways to bring peace to the beleaguered nation. None of them succeeded. Now that the west is busy fending off a Russian aggression on Ukraine, the crisis in Libya is no longer a major focus of western capitals. Instead, now the African Union is tasked to help push for a political solution through yet another so-called reconciliation conference.
But as in the previous conferences, such initiative is not likely to bear fruit. Let’s be realistic: Africa is no major player in the Libyan conflict. Even Algeria and Egypt, two countries that share massive borders with Libya, have no political capital to influence the course of events there in a solid way.
The reality is that Africans have no privileged relations with either Tripoli-based Prime Minister Dbeibah or with his rival, the rogue and war-monger self-appointed Marshal, Khalifa Haftar in the east.
Currently there is a zero-sum game where a balance of sort has been created to maintain the status quo. All players in this conflict, chief of which are the UAE, Qatar, the Saudis, France, UK, Russia, US, Turkey, etc… have reached a certain balance whereby even as the conflict continues, they feel there is no dangerous spillover and the oil and gas sector appears to be shielded from the fighting. With no regional security impact (by regional I mean southern Europe) and no impact on Libya’s gas fields, the world seems to say “let’s focus on the next conflict, the Russia-Ukraine war, and let’s see if Africa can take over.” In this case, I am not so confident Africa’s political elite has what it takes to make it happen. They are all bugged down in domestic and/regional conflicts to have the political capital to help the Libyans.
AU says to organise Libya reconciliation conference
The African Union is organising a national reconciliation conference for Libya, AU Commission chief Moussa Faki Mahamat told AFP on Sunday, the latest bid to restore stability to the conflict-wracked nation. “We have met with the different parties and we are in the process of working with them on a date and place for the national conference,” he said after a press conference wrapping up a two-day AU summit. The meeting will be chaired by the African Union’s pointman on Libya, Republic of Congo President Denis Sassou Nguesso, Faki said.
Libya descended into a decade of violence following the 2011 overthrow of dictator Moamer Kadhafi in a NATO-backed rebellion. The resulting power grab gave rise to myriad home-grown militias and prompted interventions by Arab powers as well as Turkey, Russia and Western states. Since March last year, an administration in Libya’s east backed by military leader Khalifa Haftar — who has been close to Russia and Egypt — has challenged the UN-recognised government of Prime Minister Abdulhamid Dbeibah, arguing it has outlived its mandate.
Earlier this month, the United Nations announced that senior officials from the rival administrations had endorsed a coordination mechanism to clear the country of foreign troops and mercenaries. The UN mission in Libya hailed “an important step toward achieving sustainable stability and peace in Libya” after a meeting in Cairo on February 8 along with officials from Sudan and Niger. However, the discussions led by UN envoy Abdoulaye Bathily failed to produce a clear timetable or concrete measures for the withdrawal of foreign fighters. The UN estimated in late 2021 that there were more than 20,000 foreign fighters, both military and paramilitary, in the country.
