By Arezki Daooud: A lot of military-related events are taking place in the Sahel and other parts of Africa. First, a quick update on US troop withdrawal from Niger. US defense officials are saying the pullout is happening as scheduled and apparently without any glitches. There are currently some 600 US military personnel in Niger, all of whom should exist Niger no later than September 15, 2024.  The troops withdrawal from Niger started in May.

In neighboring Mali, the ruling junta there has endorsed a defense agreement tying it to Russia. The draft texts on what they call “Agreement on Military and Technical Cooperation” between Bamako and Moscow was ratified last Thursday by the Malian Council of Ministers.

The agreement contains a lot of things, many clearly stated, other areas are likely confidential, in particular on intelligence and covert operations.  The obvious areas of cooperation that were made public include the modernization and upgrading of Mali’s military equipment, which means more Russian sales to Mali. There is also training, another code word for Russian soldiers on the ground.

In these changing dynamics that appear to favor Russia, France is the country that saw its influence in Africa erode at the fastest rate. Its presence has been drastically diminished in Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso, but French officials are working to reduce their military presence in other countries, arguing that it is necessary to “reduce the visibility” of French soldiers in former colonies.

European media says by 2025, France will call back troops from military bases in Senegal, Gabon, Côte d’Ivoire, and Chad, allowing the host countries to take over the military bases. The move is also the result of Paris anticipating growing backlash in Africa against its presence, and its best response is to move ahead of what is expected. In reducing the size of the French forces in Africa, the Macron administration will seek to avoid forced withdrawals of the French armies, as was the case in Mali and Burkina Faso, and Niger in 2023.

While Paris is responding to the growing calls for sovereignty by Africans, there is the risk for seeing French troops being replaced by Russians.