MEA Risk – May 1, 2018: For the period of 1 to 15 April 2018, threat assessment firm MEA Risk reports 38 critical incidents in Mozambique, resulting in 10 deaths and at least 17 arrests. The Human & Social category accounted for 29.41% of the week’s incident pool, followed by the Economy category with 20.59%. Highlights of the fortnight include:
– The general level of instability in Mozambique has decreased substantially owing to three major factors: the first is a noticeable reduction in incidents tied to natural disasters, as the rainy season ended. There is also a stabilizing political process that aims at ending the conflict between the government and the Renamo militant group, although some tension remains. Finally, the security forces appear to be in control in the region of Cabo Delgado where attacks from suspected Islamic militants rattled the region over the past three months.
– On the political front, there has been no major announcement of the peace process issue. However, Renamo leader Afonso Dhlakama insisted that Mozambique’s main opposition party will only hand over the arms of its military wing when the officers of the organization are integrated into the command of the various branches of the Defense and Security Forces.
– The abduction and assault on 27 March of journalist Ericino de Salema ignited fear of a government crackdown of basic liberties. There has been growing discontent from various pressure groups over Mozambique’s attacks against freedom of expression and general rights. A coalition of civil and political organizations has been putting pressure on the parliament through a petition condemning “assaults on civilians and the violation of rights of freedom of expression.” Similarly, representing Catholic Bishops, the President of the Episcopal Commission for Justice and Peace, said that attacks on freedom of expression in the country were harmful to democracy and urged action to protect basic rights.
¨ Twenty-six people were injured following an accident on National Road 1 in Maputo province on 4 April, involving two vehicles transporting passengers. Meanwhile, the police also said that 33 people died during the Easter holiday period, as a result of 39 road accidents throughout the country. In the country’s waterways, seven people drowned after a boat sank to the bottom of Zambezi River due to bad weather in the central province of Tete on 2 April 2018. Maritime accidents claimed the lives of 233 people in 2017 in Mozambique, 77 of whom have never been found.
– Russia is getting more open access to Mozambique’s territorial waters for its naval forces. The Ministers of Defense of the two countries signed an agreement simplifying visits of Russian military vessels to Mozambique ports.
– On the criminality front, there were three murder cases that have gathered public and media attention in Mozambique. In the first case, the police arrested three people accused of murdering a Radio Mozambique manager in Maputo. In Tete, a man was arrested in connection with the murder and mutilation of an unnamed man in Angonia. In Nampula, an unidentified gang abducted the Deputy Chief of the Armaments sector in the Northern Regional Command of the Defense Forces of Mozambique (FADM). His body was found days later under a damaged truck immobilized in the road near his residence.
Looking ahead:
On the political and security front, Mozambique is entering a new cycle of election campaigning after President Nyusi announced the general election will take place on 15 October 2019. The race for the various local, legislative and presidential elections will be fraught with risks as many of the ground rules have not been established yet. The Mozambican government and political stakeholders pledged to make meaningful changes to the constitution, but will have a very small window of opportunity to make the required adjustments, considering the peace talks are still underway. Campaigning and political positioning by the competing forces will likely take place amid unsettled rules and can lead to abuses. Political violence could ignite, as a result. The case of Ranamo pressuring the police to return a building in Nampula, amid police resistance is an example of the potential issues that could lead to violence.
On the social and human, the most important factor of social instability of over the past months has subsided. The rainy season just ended, bringing a much needed moment of respite for the Mozambican population. Floods have receded and fear of storms has eased. However, the country will remain on high alert as the threat of epidemics and viral outbreaks could further destabilize Mozambique. The latest disease to raise concern in public health circles is listeriosis, which despite authorities reporting the situation being under control, the risk remains real considering the porous nature of the Mozambique borders with its neighbors.
Another important source of losses in Mozambique is the country’s poor state of roads and maritime transportation. Both reckless driving and substandard roads, vehicles and boats are causing many accidents with loss of life. The government will have to tighten the rules of traffic on roads and waterways to avoid more losses.
On the economic front, households and businesses will continue to witness price hikes for commodities and services. The past fortnight’s increase in the prices of cement and petroleum products will inevitably have a direct impact on almost all sectors of the Mozambican economy, and could lead to more inflation. The country continues to be confronted with a massive debt and an unclear posture on how to reduce such debt.
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