MEA Risk LLC – May 2, 2018: In its weekly threat assessment report, sister company MEA Risk pains a grim picture of the security situation in Nigeria. MEA Risk says for the period of 23 to 29 April 2018, there were 46 critical incidents in Nigeria, resulting in 221 deaths. Attacks perpetrated by suspected herdsmen and Boko Haram spiked this week, accounting for one third of the total incident pool tracked by MEA Risk. The military response, with operations categorized as “Security and Defense”, accounted for 17.4% of the week’s total incident pool, a share that was surpassed by the “Domestic Politics” category with nearly 22%.
– Political tension in Nigeria intensified this week with the arrest of Senator Dino Melaye of Kogi West over accusations of criminal activity. Although Melaye belongs to the same party as the president, opposition figures used the opportunity to lash out at President Buhari, insisting that his administration is working to neutralize opponents and critics ahead of the 2019 elections.
– Growing pressure on President Buhari is not only related to attacks on opposition figures, but there has been an increase of criticism over the way his administration governs. This week saw MPs calling for Buhari’s impeachment over the purchase of military jets not approved by the house of representative. Buhari insisted he had to spend the money given the deadlines imposed by the seller in the US, an argument that has not been accepted by several MPs. Religious figures, too, have also spoken against the administration, with a prominent Islamic cleric stating publicly that the President was unfit to govern. This is a significant development because being a Muslim, Buhari gets a great deal of support from fellow Muslims. The cleric’s comment may be the first sign of a erosion in Buhari’s own voter base. Meanwhile the murder this week of Christian pastors by suspected herders also prompted the Catholic Bishops Conference of Nigeria (CBCN) to call on President Buhari to resign.
– The grazing wars have intensified this week with suspected herders killing two priests and 17 worshipers in Benue state’s Gwer East region. The news of the attack led to protests in major areas of Makurdi. This is not the only deadly incident involving suspected herdsmen, with Benue state bearing the brunt of the grazing crisis. A day after the attack on the Christian worshipers, at least 35 people were killed by alleged herdsmen in an attack on a Guma village.
– Boko Haram continued to unleash terror on northeastern Nigeria. Seven people were killed in a suicide attack in Bama, Borno state. Security forces thwarted more attempts on Bama, but Boko Haram succeeded in killing 18 forest workers in Gamboru, where three other people died from an IED explosion. Borno’s capital Maiduguri was also targeted, where six people were killed by the jihadi group in the Jidari Polo area.
– Communal clashes have taken several lives and led to widespread destruction. In Abia, scores were killed in a boundary dispute. The latest death toll reached ten. In Benue, a Hausa community leader said that eight of his members were killed when suspected Tiv youths launched a reprisal attack on a village near Makurdi. In Ondo, there was widespread destruction as Hausa-Yoruba communal clashes continued in what is a long-standing localized conflict.
– The Nigerian army has been active in its anti Boko Haram campaign, destroying a training site at Benisheikh, Borno state. The army also destroyed a bomb manufacturing site in Damboa.
Looking ahead:
The security situation in Nigeria appears to worsen, as a result of two major conflicts. Boko Haram remains relentless in its attacks on civilians and security targets in northeast Nigeria, with Borno state receiving the brunt of the insurgents’ attacks. In central Nigeria, and progressively elsewhere, the grazing wars, with herdsmen encroaching into farmlands, appear even more alarming, transforming itself from an economic-driven conflict over grazing rights, to one that is now taking a religious dimension.
Both of these conflicts appear to be dragging Nigeria into a much more severe period of instability. The issue is further magnified by political infighting that is intensifying as Nigeria prepares for the 2019 presidential election. With the administration and President Buhari battling a more entrenched opposition, solutions to ongoing security threats and sources of instability are not likely to be proposed in the foreseeable future as decision makers get distracted by political events.
Meanwhile, communal conflicts continue to bring a great deal of instability in various regions, affecting the basic social fabrics of the country. This week’s conflicts pitting communities against another in the states of Ondo, Abia and Benue are just the tip of the iceberg in regards to the challenges facing authorities in resolving local issues. They also highlight the general lack of conflict resolution mechanisms that is affecting problem-solving involving multiple communities.
Without concerted efforts from all key stakeholders, from the federal and local authorities, to local chiefs and traditional rulers, there is no opportunity for such incidents to ease.
Furthermore, with several Governors opposing the Buhari administration, there are no incentives to get the stakeholders together in solving communal crises.
On the economic front, despite oil prices improving at the global level, Nigeria, as well as other oil exporting countries are facing formidable competition from the United States on one of their most important markets, Europe. With stiffer competition, the prospect of strong recovery of oil exports for Nigeria appears slimmer, hence limiting the country’s ability to match what it used to generate from an oil revenue perspective.
This will continue to force Nigeria to raise prices for its commodities, affecting domestic companies performances, and therefore negatively affecting the broader economy.
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