The North Africa Journal: 18 October 2018: The Algerian political system has been mired in internal divisions and weak stakeholders, keeping the presidency the only effective political unit in the country. With the opposition virtually non-existent, Algeria is headed toward a 2019 presidential elections with no apparent competition against the incumbent president, Abdelaziz Bouteflika. It is still unclear whether Bouteflika will indeed run, considering his age and illness, making any prediction a highly risky exercise, but his men are clearly running the show, and will do whatever it takes to maintain Bouteflika as President and find alternatives that would ensure continuity in their oversight of the country’s presidential domain. One of the many action they took to ensure limited resistance, has been to reduce the powers third political institutions, the national parliament and the ruling FLN party, which are now struggling with substantial divisions, preventing them from being full participant in the political process, essentially allowing free reign for the presidency to plan and organize the upcoming elections.
Over the past weeks, there has been a continued crisis pitting the FLN party boss against the President of the Parliament, culminating this week with several Members of Parliament (MPs) affiliated to the FLN, physically blocking Parliament President Said Bouhadja from gaining access to his office, demanding his resignation. This came one day after five FLN parliamentarians sided with Bouhadja, and against their Secretary-General of the party, raising questions about the lack of cohesion at the FLN.
The feud escalated on 16 October when MPs padlocked the doors of the national assembly early in the morning to prevent their president, Said Bouhadja, from entering. In doing so, the MPs would utilize a parliament rule allowing them to declare the seat of the president as vacant, and then convene a session to oust him. On 17 October, the eldest MP declared the seat vacant, based on a parliament procedure requiring the oldest member of the assembly to observe the vacancy, essentially sealing the fate of Bouhadja. But the move has been highly controversial, and highlights how fragile the Algerian political system is. On one hand, the head of the FLN, supported by the Prime Minister received support against the President of the Parliament by virtually all MPs that are members of the governing coalition, setting the stage for many Algerian political observers call a “coup d’état.” While pressure has been mounting on Bouhadja, the latter first submitted his resignation, which he quickly rescinded after receiving the support of the powerful organization of former combatants. Bouhadja also gathered a great deal of popular support, with both the general public and the independent media seeing him as the underdog fighting big power.
It is, however, still unclear as to why Bouhadja has been the target of attacks. The best analysis says that Bouhadja, an elder politician and a former militant who fought during the war of independence, appeared to be reluctant to toe the line to those seeking a fifth mandate for the incumbent president, Abdelaziz Bouteflika. The presidency has virtually pacified all major forces, from neutralizing the opposition, to reducing the role of the military and intelligence services in their involvement in selecting a President. While it is unclear if President Bouteflika will actually run for another mandate due to his age and illness, there have been efforts to amend the Algerian constitution to allow the president to appoint one or two Vice Presidents, thereby assuring that political control remains in the firm hands of the same group of men, even if the president is incapacitated. These are the two points that the head of the parliament, apparently the fourth most important official in the government’s structure, appears to be opposing. Becoming a burden to the system, the Secretary-General of the FLN, Djamel Ould Abbes, a man extremely loyal to the presidency, appears to been chosen to wage the war against Bouhadja.
The political outlook for Algeria calls for a great deal of uncertainty. The country is headed toward “continuity,” which many favor, but which cements a very bad political practice of maintaining the same rulers for decade. The outcome of the 2019 elections will likely determine how Algeria’s political system will look like for at least a generation. And so far, the outlook looks rather grim.
