Analysts at MEA Risk LLC have looked at the situation in Algeria and see no positive outcome from next week’s presidential elections. The peaceful demeanor of the anti-regime movement has disoriented the ruling military elite, headed by General Gaid Salah, despite the support they have been getting from the likes of the United Arab Emirates and France. The Algerian generals of Gaid Salah’s generation have been accustomed to responding to violence, with even more violence. Dealing with women, children, old and young men is a completely disorienting experience.
Indeed, what they are dealing with are at least three points that the Algerian people have collectively endorsed:
(1) the protest will remain “Silmiya” (that is peaceful). The idea here is to not give a pretext for the violent security services and the generals’ attack dogs to intervene and claim that they are legitimately thwarting violent destabilization.
(2) The people see the protest as a marathon and not a sprint and so this is going to be a long term battle, and..
(3) The protesters say their movement will have not single or small group of identifiable leaders that could be neutralized, and therefore it would lead to the neutralizing of their movement. The reality is that there are dozens of extremely vocal anti-government figures who have been using social media to spread their ideas. They are not coordinated in the form of an organization, but their messages are the same, and they often reach the same conclusions. The people tend to follow these personalities, mostly abroad, and follow their recommendations. But these are opinion makers and not political leaders, yet!
This form of political militancy, a true protest platform, is found nowhere else in history. A collective endorsement of points, steps and clear goals by 40 million people without a central organization is unprecedented, and is putting the Algerian generals in a real bad place. What is also hurting the military junta is the fact that all divisive tactics it has been using, like using ethnic Kabyles vs. Arabs to sow divisions, the fear of Islamist terrorism, the fear of a NATO invasion, and all other non-sense, have been rejected as a whole by the people. For the people, it all boils down to “simple” demands that need to be met, or else it is status quo, even with a new president: the military withdraw from politics, the remnants of the Bouteflika regime gone, and the establishment of a temporary caretaker team comprised of new figures unrelated to Bouteflika. The protest movement would also love to see the military chiefs in jail, but that’s for another day.
In a note issued to its clients, MEA Risk expects the Algerian political crisis to extend well into 2020, considering that both protagonists are not signaling any interest in backing down. In fact, both the population on the one hand, and the military command on the other have hardened their respective positions. The military command wants an election at any cost to survive the public tsunami, while the people are adamant that a regime change must take place and this election is a poison pill they will not swallow. The MEA Risk assessment looks into the political, security and economic implications of the upcoming elections. Free access is available here: https://bit.ly/38fjRn6
