Algeria: Now that the fake elections are over, time to pick a rubber-stamping Prime Minister

And now what?

By Arezki Daoud: President Tebboune has had his election and it turned out to be a disaster. The man was warned by his own political police not to run at this stage, as the people were not ready. They begged him to postpone it, or else the country’s credibility will suffer. But Tebboune being Tebboune, he insisted on maintaining his schedule, regardless. Indeed, Tebboune himself told the press he cared less about voter turnout. And what turnout it was! At 11 AM, the voter turnout, according to the government-controlled “independent” election commission, was less than 4% nationwide. At 4 PM, the official inflated rate was 14.47%. Then suddenly, a deluge of voters took the voting booths, pushing the rate to 30.2% by 8 PM. Unthinkable! An entire 15% of the voting population (half of those who voted) showed up miraculously after 4 PM. Now, for that to happen, one would need two conditions: the first, such scenario could happen if it were a weekday when people may be leaving work and all congregating at poll stations en-masse. But that’s a weekend day and so that scenario does not justify the figure invented by the regime. Still, and that’s the second point, scenario 1 would be valid if Algeria had a normal employment environment. But we know that the real unemployment figure is not what the government says, the famous 12-15% that every other banana republic uses. In Algeria, it is more like 50%. Yes, half of the population is unemployed. But Tebboune does not care and so goes the story.

Now here we are Monday, two days after the election and the regime (the real voters) is stuck in trying to decide who won the most seats. There are some big discussions, even fights, among the old men controlling Algeria on who to pick to walk behind Tebboune as Prime Minister. It has to be a puppet and so they are careful. The Islamists have all declared victory, after the regime forced the secular movement to stay out of the election. In doing so, Tebboune and his amateur cronies are giving birth to something they have no idea how it’ll go. Opening the door to the Islamists in Algeria is opening the door wide open to all sorts of speculations, including a take-over by Qatar and Turkey since most Algerian Islamists pledge allegiance to these nations. That would certainly counter-balance the allegiance to the UAE and Egypt from the many members of the regime.

At the end of the day, the three elections that Algerians experienced since the end of 2019, will resolved nothing. Many analysts say this parliamentary election is the end of the road for the pro-democracy movement known as the Hirak. I say this is absolutely wrong, it is likely to be the opposite. The Hirak and its members know very well how this regime works, and they have no interest in complying with any of the directives coming from any government institutions now or in the future, unless a democratic process is put in place. Over the coming years, Algeria will consist of two blocks: The first is what I call the ‘mainland’, consisting of the Algerian population that have no respect to anything close to the regime, from the central government to provincial, county and local authorities. That would include the Islamists who are now set to become a governing entity. The people will continue to do what they do, and that is to survive in a very harsh environment but without recognizing the fake government in place.

Then there is the “island,” consisting of an isolated, highly armed and militarized regime, surrounded by millions who are angry and hungry. A permanent state of anger is likely to dominate Algeria in the years ahead. Governing in such environment will be impossible and time will act as an erosion factor. By that I mean while the Bouteflika regime managed to survive thanks to the oil and gas wealth, the Tebboune regime is facing an unprecedented economic crisis that governing in Algeria will be daunting task.