And now what?By Arezki Daoud: President Tebboune has had his election and it turned out to be a disaster. The man was warned by his own political police not to run at this stage, as the people were not ready. They begged him to postpone it, or else the country’s credibility will suffer. But Tebboune being Tebboune, he insisted on maintaining his schedule, regardless. Indeed, Tebboune himself told the press he cared less about voter turnout. And what turnout it was! At 11 AM, the voter turnout, according to the government-controlled “independent” election commission, was less than 4% nationwide. At 4 PM, the official inflated rate was 14.47%. Then suddenly, a deluge of voters took the voting booths, pushing the rate to 30.2% by 8 PM. Unthinkable! An entire 15% of the voting population (half of those who voted) showed up miraculously after 4 PM. Now, for that to happen, one would need two conditions: the first, such scenario could happen if it were a weekday when people may be leaving work and all congregating at poll stations en-masse. But that’s a weekend day and so that scenario does not justify the figure invented by the regime. Still, and that’s the second point, scenario 1 would be valid if Algeria had a normal employment environment. But we know that the real unemployment figure is not what the government says, the famous 12-15% that every other banana republic uses. In Algeria, it is more like 50%. Yes, half of the population is unemployed. But Tebboune does not care and so goes the story.Now here we are Monday, two days after the election and the regime (the real voters) is stuck in trying to decide who won the most seats. There are some big discussions, even fights, among the old men controlling Algeria on who to pick to walk behind Tebboune as Prime Minister. It has to be a puppet and so they are careful. The Islamists have all declared victory, after the regime forced the secular movement to stay out of the election. In doing so, Tebboune and his amateur cronies are giving birth to something they have no idea how it’ll go. Opening the door to the Islamists in Algeria is opening the door wide open to all sorts of speculations, including a take-over by Qatar and Turkey since most Algerian Islamists pledge allegiance to these nations. That would certainly counter-balance the allegiance to the UAE and Egypt from the many members of the regime.At the end of the day, the three elections that Algerians experienced since the end of 2019, will resolved nothing. Many analysts say this parliamentary election is the end of the road for the pro-democracy movement known as the Hirak. I say this is absolutely wrong, it is likely to be the opposite. The Hirak and its members know very well how this regime works, and they have no interest in complying with any of the directives coming from any government institutions now or in the future, unless a democratic process is put in place. Over the coming years, Algeria will consist of two blocks: The first is what I call the ‘mainland’, consisting of the Algerian population that have no respect to anything close to the regime, from the central government to provincial, county and local authorities. That would include the Islamists who are now set to become a governing entity. The people will continue to do what they do, and that is to survive in a very harsh environment but without recognizing the fake government in place.Then there is the “island,” consisting of an isolated, highly armed and militarized regime, surrounded by millions who are angry and hungry. A permanent state of anger is likely to dominate Algeria in the years ahead. Governing in such environment will be impossible and time will act as an erosion factor. By that I mean while the Bouteflika regime managed to survive thanks to the oil and gas wealth, the Tebboune regime is facing an unprecedented economic crisis that governing in Algeria will be daunting task. |
By Abdellah Cheballah with Philippe AGRET in Tunis
Algeria was early Monday still waiting for the results of a parliamentary election boycotted by the long-running Hirak protest movement and marked by widespread abstention. Ahead of the official results, an Islamist party seen as moderate, the Movement of Society for Peace (MSP), said its candidates were in the lead in most regions. It warned against “numerous efforts to alter the results”.
With the widespread abstentions, established parties linked to the regime — the National Liberation Front (FLN) and the Democratic National Rally (RND) — had been seen as likely to lose seats. A statement by the National Independent Elections Authority (ANIE) cited by several news outlets late Sunday refuted “unfounded” claims regarding the election, without naming the MSP.
After Saturday’s vote, electoral commission chief Mohamed Chorfi said that turnout had been just 30.2 percent — the lowest in a legislative poll at least 20 years. He said it would be 96 hours before official results are announced.
Fewer than one percent of registered voters cast their ballots in Kabylie, a mainly Berber region east of Algiers, and the cities of Bejaia and Tizi Ouzou. “As expected, the majority of Algerians snubbed the ballot boxes. The low turnout confirms the strong trend towards rejecting the vote,” read the front page of French-language daily Liberte.
President Abdelmadjid Tebboune, himself elected on an official turnout of less than 40 percent in late 2019, put a brave face on the figures. “For me, the turnout isn’t important. What’s important is whether the lawmakers that the people elect have enough legitimacy,” the president said.
Journalists arrested
The Hirak protest movement, which apart from a hiatus due to the coronavirus pandemic had held twice-weekly demonstrations for reform until they were effectively banned last month, rejected the polls as a “sham”. The movement has urged boycotts of all national polls since it mobilised hundreds of thousands of people in early 2019 to force longtime president Abdelaziz Bouteflika and his cronies from power.
But voting day was mainly calm, except in Kabylie, where ballot boxes were ransacked and security forces detained dozens of people, rights groups said. Two prominent journalists detained on the eve of the election and released Saturday, Khaled Drareni and Ihsane El Kadi, condemned their “arbitrary” arrests. “I believe you have the right to know that two journalists… were subjected to arbitrary arrest and detention for no apparent reason,” Drareni wrote on his Facebook page.
On Sunday, authorities cancelled France 24’s right to operate in the country, over its “clear and repeated hostility towards our country and its institutions”, the communications ministry and government spokesman Ammar Belhimer said in quotes carried by the APS news agency. Reporters Without Borders (RSF) ranked Algeria 146 out of 180 countries and territories in its 2020 World Press Freedom Index, a 27-place drop from 2015.
