In a message published this week by the state news agency APS, Interim head of state Abdelkader Bensalah repeated the same arguments put forward by army chief General Gaid Salah on the urgency of holding presidential elections, “whatever the cost and as quickly as possible.” The speech marks the complete disconnect between the Algerian government and the vast majority of the people.
Another indication of the ever growing gap between the two main protagonists in the Algerian crisis, the people vs. the regime, Bensalah threw more support to the embattled Dialogue Panel headed by former assembly speaker Karim Younes, a panel that has found no support whatsoever from the core of the anti-government protest movement.
The disconnect is further magnified by the very words used by Bensalah in his speech, saying “the dialogue was favorably received by the public and is registering a growing support and adhesion on the part of all actors of the political scene”. Such statement certainly brings the credibility of the Algerian government to its lowest level ever. Bensalah has, once again, claimed that he has always called for “a serious, broad and inclusive national dialogue as a way to guarantee the Algerian people the right to choose the President of the Republic as soon as possible.” A statement that contradicts the population’s demands for the removal of the remnants of the Bouteflika regime, a transition period, the surrendering of power by the army, the release of political prisoners, and other items that the military command refuses to abide by.
For Bensalah, the panel led by Karim Younes is “the unique and the ultimate mechanism to get out of the crisis.” By calling it a “sovereign and entirely independent authority”, Bensalah gives the impression of an impartial process, where the head of state is completely detached. However, the opposition says the real power is held by the military and negotiating with Bensalah is futile.
Military command’s sole strategy is a controlled presidential election
Meanwhile, analysts in Algeria say that despite the strong anti-government movement and its rejection of the current process of dialogue engineered by the government, the latter has drawn its agenda to call for the organization of a presidential election by the end of 2019 as a way to impose a military-drafted agenda through the imposition of a candidate under the control of the military command. Analysts say such roadmap has already been developed.
The first step is to push the Dialogue Panel members led by Karim Younes to begin its negotiation process starting 26 August. Panel committees will be set up in all wilayas (provinces) of the country. Meetings with all political parties will be organized, as well as with many personalities to be held across the country. The goal is to generate an official document that brings together all the recommendations and demands of the 22 February anti-government movement by mid-September. These initiatives are said to be driven by the military command and its intelligence services, aided by loyalists in the civilian world.
In the second stage, this official document will be handed to Abdelkader Bensalah, the acting President of the State. The latter will negotiate to execute certain claims. According to our sources, Bensalah will begin with a change of government, including the resignation of Nourredine Bedoui towards the end of September. The exit of Bedoui has long been a demand by the population, but it will not likely appease the population. Then Bensalah is expected to sign a pardon decree to free the prisoners of conscience and peaceful protesters arrested and jailed for many weeks. However, sources say this presidential pardon will not acknowledge the status of “political prisoner” for the demonstrators and opponents who have been jailed to avoid accepting responsibility in the crisis on the international scene.
In the third stage, Abdelkader Bensalah, taking advantage of these measures of appeasement, will announce at the end of September the convocation of the electorate for the organization of a presidential election in December 2019. Bensalah is expected to announce the establishment of the commission for the organization of presidential elections whose operation will be widely discussed and analyzed in the document drafted by the by Karim Younes Panel. Analysts predict that the Algerian government will accept the principle of the independence of the ‘Election Commission.’ It will be composed of magistrates, representatives of professional organizations, known members of the civil society as well as representatives of Hirak (anti-government movement). This national commission will have local and provincial commissions tasked to supervise the presidential election, independently from the Ministry of the Interior.
With this strategy, the Algerian government hopes to hold a presidential election before the end of 2019. And with the election of a new president, the regime is hoping to break the current stalemate, but such strategy is unlikely to get a positive response from the protest movement.
