1PREMIUM Bound

A low-profile but consequential rivalry between the United Arab Emirates and Qatar is reshaping access to the Red Sea. Through competing alliances, port investments, and security partnerships, both Gulf states are extending their influence across the Horn of Africa. At the center of this struggle lies Somaliland, whose strategic coastline, port infrastructure, and political status have become critical factors in a broader contest involving regional and extra-regional powers.

Relations between Benin and Niger have entered a more confrontational phase following reciprocal diplomatic expulsions, reflecting deeper political and security disagreements. Since Niger’s military takeover, diverging regional alignments and growing mutual suspicion have complicated dialogue, with consequences extending beyond diplomacy to trade flows, border communities, and regional stability in West Africa.

As the European Union prepares to implement its revised migration framework in mid-2026, coordination between Italy and North African states is already reshaping how migration is managed across the Mediterranean. The new approach shifts operational responsibility away from EU territory and toward transit countries in the Maghreb, with a growing focus on returns rather than border enforcement. While framed as regional cooperation, the emerging system raises questions about governance, funding transparency, and the capacity of transit states to absorb migrants who are unable to move forward or return home. The result may be fewer arrivals in Europe, but increased pressure and instability along the southern Mediterranean.

Nigeria is modifying how it conducts air operations against armed groups under a revised security arrangement with the United States. The new framework places greater emphasis on U.S. intelligence and reconnaissance support while shifting operational responsibility to Nigerian forces. The approach reflects Abuja’s effort to balance external assistance with domestic control amid ongoing security challenges in the country’s northwest.