Shield and Alert: Maghreb Bound

In 2026, U.S. visa policy is entering a more restrictive phase for large parts of Africa and the Middle East. Countries including Egypt, Morocco, Nigeria, South Africa, Ghana, and Zimbabwe now face higher application costs, expanded biometric requirements, mandatory disclosure of social media and digital histories, and longer processing timelines. At the same time, several Sahel states have responded with reciprocal measures, suspending or banning visas for U.S. citizens. What began as a security-driven adjustment to immigration screening has evolved into a broader diplomatic signal, reshaping mobility, bilateral relations, and perceptions of U.S. engagement across Africa and the Middle East.

As Libya approaches 2026, the country remains locked in a prolonged political impasse marked by competing authorities, delayed elections, and sustained foreign involvement. Rival governments and security structures continue to operate in parallel, limiting the ability of Libyan institutions to exercise unified control. Regional and international actors remain deeply embedded in Libya’s political and security environment, shaping outcomes through strategic alliances and informal arrangements. While large-scale conflict has been contained, the absence of a nationally driven political settlement leaves Libya’s sovereignty constrained and its long-term stability uncertain.

A Tunis appeals court has confirmed a two-year prison sentence against opposition leader Abir Moussi, upholding a conviction linked to allegations of digital misinformation and defamation. The ruling, tied to a case initiated by Tunisia’s election authority, comes amid a wider use of legal provisions governing online speech in politically sensitive cases.

Saudi–Emirati tensions over Yemen have reignited a debate about how the United Arab Emirates projects power beyond the Gulf, particularly across Africa and the Maghreb. The public rupture with Saudi Arabia over Yemen has drawn attention to a broader pattern in which Abu Dhabi is accused of using proxy actors, military support, media influence, and selective alliances to shape outcomes in fragile conflict zones. From Libya and Sudan to the Western Sahara file, the UAE has emerged as a consequential external actor whose involvement often intersects with local rivalries, unresolved conflicts, and competing regional interests.