With Wagner stepping aside, the Africa Corps is moving in, bringing structure and legitimacy to Moscow’s support for Bamako. Touareg leaders, fearing a more efficient and state-backed force, have begun testing quiet understandings with jihadist factions like GSIM. It’s not a formal alliance, but a sign of growing desperation in a region where alliances shift quickly and survival often overrides ideology.

Russia has replaced the Wagner Group in Mali with its new Africa Corps, signaling a shift toward a more controlled and official military presence focused on training and intelligence. While the tactics may look different, Moscow’s long-term ambitions in the region remain very much the same—just better dressed.

Al-Qaeda’s Sahel branch (GSIM) is now emerging as the region’s dominant jihadist force. Even the brutal Islamic State has been largely unable to contain SGIM’s expansion, which has been expanding its control across Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger.