By Arezki Daoud: What is happening in Syria cannot leave us insensitive to the plight of the Syrian people, who have endured decades of abuse from the Assad family and its cronies. From the father Hafad al-Assad to his son Bachar al-Assad, the Syrian people experienced some of the most brutal treatments in modern history. But as of this past Sunday, the Assad dynasty is done and over with and while I am rejoicing for the Syrian people for getting rid of a brutal regime, many observers, including myself, fear that the next two decades will be extremely hard on Syria, unless a miracle happens.
As of today, the Islamist-led coalition, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), declared further consolidation of control in eastern Syria. HTS has named Mohammed al-Bashir, a former leader in Idlib, as Syria’s caretaker prime minister until March. Efforts are underway to stabilize the capital Damascus and HTS said it has seized Deir al-Zour.
The likelihood of a stable Syria is possible but unlikely given the geopolitics of the region. Somehow, a dreadful scenario that resembles that of Libya, but many times more severe, could take place. Externally, the country is surrounded by aggressive nations, from Turkey, Israel, Iran and the Gulf countries with their own conflicting agendas and perpetual feuds. Global powers also have conflicting agendas and are not likely to agree on a common strategy for Syria. And so Syria could now be the next Libya but on steroid.
Internally, the country has long been the victim of deep divisions, with feuding parties influenced by foreign interests. It does not require a savvy political analyst to conclude that Syria is on the break of a multi-decade upheaval.
With European leaders showing no capacity to positively influence global geopolitics, a Russia stuck in a costly war in Ukraine and an upcoming US president, Donald Trump, who has been advocating for more isolation for the US, the Syria crisis promises to blow up the entire region if it is not controlled immediately. And despite their extreme wealth, Gulf nations should be extremely concerned about their own regime survival as tensions in Syrian reach their peak.
On the ground, the entry of the rebels into Damascus accelerated the demise of the Assad regime, but it is also creating another cycle of a humanitarian crisis. While the Assad family finds shelter in Russia, hundreds of thousands of people fled the Syrian capital and other regions, in what promises to start another wave of displacements and mass migrations, likely to also affect the already destabilized neighboring countries like Lebanon, weak nations like Jordan and Iraq and Europe itself.
But is there any hope for Syria to stabilize? Well, we should hope that the exit of Assad could usher in a new era of stability, even if foreign nations would not likely allow such a thing to happen. Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani, the man who has led HTM to Damascus, is attempting to rebrand himself as a trustworthy dealmaker, distancing himself from the Jihadist ideology to a nationalist one. He told the media that all ethnic groups in Syria should be protected. The Western media now says he is a hero. But will his rehabilitation by the West translate into stability in Syria? Only time will tell.
For many analysts, the lightning speed of the anti-Assad offensive led by the HTS is suspicious, arguing that it may have been part of a grand scheme to reshuffle the deck in the region. They believe there is a strong likelihood that some deal involving key foreign powers active in the region was reached to remove the Assad clan and send it to Russia. This is because all of a sudden, al-Jawlani became accepted and acceptable to the very western media that vilified him for years and labeled him a terrorist. The HTS fast offensive, they say, could align with broader geopolitical agendas, such as shifting alliances, or strategic repositioning by regional or global powers. But without explicit evidence or credible reports, this remains conjectural for the time being.
For now, though, HTS is signaling its willingness to play by the book and be more constructive. Al-Jawlani is following the same playbook, seeking to reassure the Syrian people and the international community by insisting that “the country is not ready for another war.” In his first statement in Al Jazeera, the man picked to lead the transition, Mohammad al-Bashir, has been promising to restore stability and Syrians’ “confidence in their institutions”. He assured that the interim government will strive to maintain the continuity of institutions and avoid the disintegration of the state. “It is time for the Syrian people to regain calm and stability,” he said.
Following those moves, US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken, has pledged to support a future inclusive government, while the European Union has warned of future challenges, hoping to avoid the mistakes of transitions in Iraq, Libya, or Afghanistan.
Among some of the most significant moments of this event was the release of the prisoners held by the Assad regime in the Saydnaya prison. Thousands of prisoners had disappeared, and Syrians are trying to find lost relatives in a prison system marked by decades of brutal repression. Rights activists estimate the number of people who were killed inside Syrian prisons to exceed 100,000.
While the HTS offensive appears to signal some hope for a stable Syria, the geopolitics of the region suggests that the country is not likely to experience the stability needed to bring normalcy any time soon. Syria’s neighbors have long been on a war path for one reason or another, and they will play a significant role in shaping the future of Syria.
Obviously, Iran is the country that the west tends to single out as the most disruptive one with its backing of the Assad regime. Iran has been supporting the Assad regime politically, militarily, and economically. So it is normal that the fall of the regime would be a significant geopolitical setback for Iran. Teheran has been using Damascus to secure regional influence in countering U.S., Israeli, and Saudi influence in the Middle East. Iran’s routes and supply chain system used to channel weapons and personnel to its proxies are now deeply disrupted, a situation that will also affect Hezbollah. Iran has long sought to prevent the dominance of Sunni powerhouses Saudi Arabia and Turkey in the region, but the fall of Damascus means these two regional powers will benefit from these events.
Russia, although not neighboring Syria, has been a major source of support to Assad and holds many levers needed to stabilize the country.
Israel has been carrying out air strikes in Syria, saying it wants to prevent the military sites from falling into the hands of terrorist elements. News sources say Israel conducted 350 airstrikes since Sunday, targeting weapons sites and destroying Syria’s naval capabilities. The Israeli army has also positioned itself in the buffer zone of the Golan to establish a secure area, a situation that promises to create more tensions when the dust on Damascus settles.
Turkey has been extremely active in Syria and will remain so primarily to prevent the establishment of an autonomous Kurdish region along its southern border, fearing it could embolden Kurdish separatism within Turkey. Turkey has been working to crush the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), dominated by the YPG (People’s Protection Units), which Turkey considers a terrorist organization linked to the PKK (Kurdistan Workers’ Party). While Turkey officially designates HTS as a terrorist organization due to its origins in Jabhat al-Nusra, a former al-Qaeda affiliate, in practice, it tolerated its dominance in Idlib province, as part of its strategy to counter Syrian government forces. Now with HTS in Damascus, Turkey will want to influence any political settlement that would favor a government that limits Kurdish autonomy and counters the influence of rivals like Iran.
Where things get complex, despite backing opposing sides, Turkey and Russia have also been cooperating through diplomatic frameworks like the Astana Process. They have brokered agreements to manage tensions and avoid direct confrontation. On one hand, they compete, on the other, they cooperate. This is while the United States supports the Kurds of the SDF/YPG because they fight against ISIS. And of course the Gulf countries, each with their own agendas.
What’s ahead is a lot of uncertainty, and so while there is hope of bringing peace in the country, the most likely scenario at this stage is that Syria could be shredded into pieces. If that’s the case, watch how the crisis in Lebanon would further deepen. Lebanon is stuck between its southern border with Israel and now its northern border with Syria. The country borders a Sunni region in the north where some of the inhabitants sympathize with the Syrian rebel and the jihadist movements. But further south, it borders a region with a Shiite majority loyal to Hezbollah and Iran, which fought alongside the Syrian army. That’s guaranteed to rekindling tensions between Sunnis and Shiites in Lebanon.
In this unfolding drama, Libya or even Yemen may be templates of what Syria could become. The Gaddafi regime was toppled in 2011 and the country is still in deep trouble, 13 years later, without any sign of things getting better. All ethno-religious groups are expected to move to their corners and get ready to engage in an existential fight. The Kurds will retreat into their own state. The Alawites, who form the core support system of the al-Assad regime, will feel under siege and will hurdle in the coastal areas. The Druze will confine themselves into their mountainous southern regions. And then there are the multiple jihadist groups, from Daesh and ISIS.
