Editorial by Arezki Daoud: It’s official, Covid-19 is now North Africa’s biggest problem, just as it is for the entire world. In recent times, we have heard of, but from afar, diseases such as the Ebola virus in West Africa, the plague epidemic in Madagascar, and cholera in Yemen. But now we are in the heart of a communal experience hitting home, being felt everywhere in the world and across the entire North Africa, effecting people from the extreme west of the subregion like in Casablanca and Agadir, to North Africa’s extreme east like in the resort city of Hurghada.
The truth is that the region has not been immune from outbreaks. The plague between 1331 and 1353 that may have cost the lives of up to 60% of the European population also hit North Africa hard. In recent times, there have been isolated outbreaks, such as the one that occurred in the region of Oran, Algeria, from June to July 2003. In fact, Oran was made famous by writer Albert Camus, who became also famous because of his book, La Peste (The Plague), with the plot set in the Algerian city of Oran in the 1940s. Algerian and WHO research reported then that the country had not reported the disease in more than 50 years, but then in 2003, 18 bubonic cases were identified. All survived except for the original carrier of the virus known as the index case.
The research about the plague in North Africa appears to be linking the outbreak to people’s movements, in this case specifically commercial seaports, suggesting that diseases evolve and thrive when people are mobile and travelling and linked to far away regions. Researchers say that their review of epidemics as far back as the 14th century in Algeria show that the plague has mainly affected ports, “particularly that of Oran in 1556 and 1678 (3,000 deaths). In 1899, after an absence of nearly 100 years, the plague reappeared in the port of Philippeville (now Skikda). Three large epidemics were subsequently reported in 1921 (185 cases), 1931 (76 cases), and 1944 (95 cases) as well as 158 sporadic cases. All but two cases occurred in ports.” This time, specific to the coronavirus, ports also mean airports. Indeed, virtually all the so-called index cases identified in most African countries are foreign workers or nationals who lived or traveled to Europe or Asia.
Regardless, North Africa governments appear to have understood the urgency of freezing human movement. The more people stay at home and airports and ports shut down, the slower the virus expands, and eventually it will fade away. This is happening almost everywhere in the region. Some governments have enacted more drastic measures than others. Tunisia for example has an evening curfew. There is no question that there are people who are restless and reluctant when it comes to staying put in their homes. They need some forceful means to force them to stay in. In Algeria, the government has ordered a series of steps such as school closings, freezing of air and maritime activity, and even banning prayers in mosques. But a full curfew-style ban has not been ordered yet. It will eventually happen.
Eventually, things will return to normal. This is the outcome everyone wants. After that, the job of recovery will be extremely tedious. Entire key industries will struggle to come back and operate in normal mode. Countries that depend on oil and gas exports like Algeria, Libya, Nigeria and many others will face unprecedented issues because the global economy will not be ready to resume full-steam activity. Countries that depend on tourism like Morocco, Tunisia and Egypt, will also face reluctant foreign tourists. Imagine how long it will take the Italians, the British and French to feel confident to take a holiday south? Regardless, 2020 is already an exceptional year.
