17 January 2019 – By Arezki Daoud – The hope for some stabilization this year in North Africa and the Sahel appears to have faded away with the events in the region that greeted 2019. As the populations confront winter, they also confront one or many shortcomings of their ineffective leaders, bad governance, economic despair, an international community that is facing its own demons, and in some cases war. If you are in places like Tripoli, North Sinai or Northern Mali, war is a permanent fixture. If war is not in your town, then you are mostly likely facing social and economic challenges that remind you how desperate the region is, no matter how sheltered one feels.
As we journey into 2019, there is so much evidence of yet another wasted year ahead. In virtually every country in North Africa and the Sahel, destabilization continuous. If there is no war, social discontent kick-started the year in a country like Tunisia, where a public sector strike, called by the powerful UGTT labor union, is underway. The Tunisians are looking for much more effective economic policies that would provide better wealth sharing and avoid the concentration of wealth that we see among the elites of Morocco and Algeria and as it happened during the Ben Ali era. The current strike is precisely to demand that workers get better wages, but the problem is that Tunisia does not have the extra money to respond to that demand and the IMF insists on cuts and more cuts. This is an epic fight pitting the Tunisian labor union versus the IMF, one that would eventually culminate in this year’s elections.
The topic of presidential election is also debated in neighboring Algeria. But Algeria politics is in a league of its own. The country is facing an incredible situation where its old and ill leader is firmly tied to his presidential chair and won’t quit. Given the fact that President Bouteflika is most likely unable to govern, all decisions may be coming from people around him, and who is better positioned than the so-called Oligarchs, a group of men who essentially took over Algeria’s economic prospect and turned it into their own wealth. The oligarchs are facing an incredible dilemma: how do you convince the Algerian population that Bouteflika can run for another fifth term without looking completely mad? However, for these men, optics do not matter. What matters is how they can retain their position of power and privilege.
Meanwhile, many Algerians are struggling making ends meet. Unrest over housing shortages, local government mismanagement, rising prices, a weak dinar, and unemployment is in every subregion, but remains localized and poorly organized. That is why Algiers has no one standing up as a negotiator like the UGTT in Tunisia. As long as grievances are local and disorganized, politicians in Algiers would not care at all.
In Morocco, the year started with Islamic State sympathizers killing two European tourists. This was an unusual act in a country that enjoys some, but fragile, social stability. But Rabat is concerned by the level of radicalization affecting its citizens. So much so that the concept of “social stability” is relative, in the case of Morocco. This is because there are entire regions that remain under-developed economically and are centers of discontent. Despite understanding why people revolt, as we saw in northern Morocco, the government is not moving fast enough to correct the problems. Instead, repression and the police are used, sending the leaders of social movements to jail. This will not help address the real problems but will make them worse.
What to say about Libya and the Sahel? Both are now devastated by wars that are fueled by the heavy presence of foreign parties, be they Islamist insurgents or foreign governments. This week Tripoli has been on fire, with militias fight each other’s to death. In northern Mali, intercommunal fights are leaving scores of people dead, and there is a promise of more drama to come.
This week, please see some of the stories posted on The North Africa Journal’s website related to how badly the region started this year. As usual, please send me your feedback at daoud@north-africa.com
