From the EditorF

There is a clear stalemate in Algiers these days, although time is favoring the regime and those calling the shots in the current interim leadership. The resistance in the regime against the population’s demands, has indeed hardened, and even the man who almost became a hero last week, General Gaid Salah, head of the military, sided with the remnants of the Bouteflika regime to endorse a solution that is driven by a Bouteflika-engineered constitution, and which, sadly, maintains the men that the street dislikes so much.

The transition a-la-Algerian-constitution is now driven by the very people that protesters have insisted must go. It would have been wise if the General would have given more “red meat” to the hungry protesters and sacrifice the 3Bs to ease tension, but politics being what it is, who knows what kind of arrangements were taken at the top?  To make matters worse, the remnants of the regime remain vocal, adding more fuel to the fire in defiance of the mass public outcry. One of those adding tension is the disgraced head of the state-controlled labor union UGTA, Sidi Said, who everyone wants out. The others, still remaining front-and-center, even though they are deeply disliked, are Ahmed Ouyahia, head of RND party and recently ousted Prime Minister, and the FLN chief Moab Bouchareb, who continue to defy calls for them to vanish.

Tomorrow is Friday, and I am certain that protesters will, once again, show up, confirming that the interim team in charge now is not accepted. The police have been asked to prevent marches and gatherings, but clearly, they have a real tough job ahead, as all the water cannons and tear gas used do not appear to make a major dent on the protesters. One new strategy deployed over the past days by the security services is to create a complete gridlock in and around Algiers. Trucks from the police and gendarmerie have been positioned in various key locations, in particular on the eastern highways to entirely prevent protesters from other provinces to join the capital.

But the showdown is likely to continue for the time being, although time is on the side of the regime, for at least three reasons: the holy month of Ramadan is coming very quickly, starting in the first week of May. Once fasting sets in, the energy level among the protesters is likely to drop considerably. After Ramadan ends, the heat season takes over and will also have a dampening effect on the protest movement. The third is the date chosen by interim president Bensalah for the holding of a presidential election. Existing opposition parties and the ten new ones that have just been authorized to operate will have virtually zero time to adjust and prepare, allowing obscure personalities with unproven track records, like the unknown General Ghadiri, former head of Human Resources department at the Defense Ministry, to run. It is very likely that the unusual speed in which the Interior Ministry certified a dozen new parties is meant to dilute and divide the future electorate in July and put new parties in very weak positions in future parliaments and governments.

While all this is happening, the purges that we anticipated are taking happening on several fronts. There is now a list of more than 540 individuals banned from leaving the country. The list includes former senior government officials, intelligence officers, business owners, CEOs, etc. who may be implicated in corruption cases, including one related to the funding of Bouteflika’s reelection campaign. (read here: free but need to register). The decisions to ban these individuals came days before Algeria’s top army general pledged that all major graft cases will be resuscitated, including the ones that have gone dormant during the Bouteflika reign. These would include the financial scandals of El Khalifa, Sonatrach oil company, the construction of East-West expressway, etc. These probes are already underway, headed by the Gendarmerie (reporting to the Ministry of Defense), and not the police (reporting to the Interior Ministry), who have already raided the headquarters of Sonatrach and the ministry of Public Works (read here, but pls register). In the case of Sonatrach, there are a lot of cases under consideration by judicial authorities, including several crude-oil-for-refined-product swaps with at least two Swiss commodity brokers that may have been performed illegally.

There is also an ongoing cleanup of the Algerian intelligence services. Although our parent company MEA Risk’s analysis of this suggests that such purge will not affect the efficiency of the Algerian military and its work on the ground in terms of counter-insurgency and border/territorial protection, there is still a substantial restructuring of the intelligence community, pulling it away from the presidency, and bringing it under the control of the Ministry of Defense. (read here, but pls register for free).

Elsewhere, all major organizations and institutions tied to Bouteflika are now going through internal upheaval. Internal infighting is tearing apart the ruling FLN and RND parties, where there is an intense power struggle for their control as they have only three months to get their act together before a new president is elected. (read here, but pls register for free)

In the business world, the Algerian Central Bank has no president, with the previous one having been appointed Minister of Finance in the current cabinet. Absence of a banking chief is a major concern among economic watchers. However, the constitution that brought Bensalah as interim president also prevents him from appointing a president of the central bank.

The days and the three weeks ahead appear critical for Algeria’s future, but the path is full of uncertainty as we approach defining crossroads.