Opinion by Arezki Daoud:  All the roads leading to Tripoli are paved with landmines. The Berlin conference was a great initiative, and kudos to Angele Merkel for trying. But I fear it ended with no major progress and clear signs that the violence will not end anytime soon. On a side note, there have been rumors that the mighty warlord Khalifa Haftar was in a Berlin hotel taking a nap when the conference was underway. It shows how committed to a peaceful solution he is!

The conference’s concluding statement is full of great words, but all of them are neither binding nor do they propose consequences should someone fails to comply. It’s a great text but with no power to change the situation or impose a solution.  For example, it say the “participants commit to refraining from interference” and urges all international actors “to do the same”. This does not sounds like a solid commitment. The rest of the document (see below) is full of calls and suggestions on how to reach some peace with a similar tone.

The problem with Libya today boils down to one and only one person, Khalifa Haftar (pictured above), and by extension his supporters in the Gulf and in Europe.  We can argue that the strong position of Turkey’s Erdogan to support Haftar’s foes in Tripoli, the Government of National Accord (GNA) may be too interventionist, is an attempt by Turkey to resuscitate its Ottoman glory (as many report), and is part of the problem, at the end of the day, the GNA is not the attacker. It is the victim, whether we like or hate the Muslim Brotherhood that controls it.  The belligerent one is Haftar. Knowing that, what is Haftar’s position these days?  Well, he has no intention of adopting a peaceful stance at all in this conflict. His three missions are to pacify the country, throw his foes of the GNA in prison, and take over the country like his former comrade Muamar Qaddafi did. If Haftar felt weak, there would probably be a chance for peace due to a zero-sum game in the balance of power. But Haftar feels (probably wrongly at the moment) that the momentum is in his favor. With the US not so involved in the Libya drama and feeling it has no skin in the game, the UAE and other sponsors have taken the lead and are pouring billions of dollars in sponsoring Haftar.  In fact, there have even been allegations in some leading US media that the UAE royals have been putting pressure on Haftar to never accept a ceasefire. And not only he did that, but he defied the world by launching attacks despite a ceasefire, as the world leaders gathered in Berlin to figure out how to contain the crisis. His warplanes have just carried out airstrikes on Abugrein, a region nestled between Sirte and Misrata, in violation of a ceasefire. Over the weekend, there have been clashes near Tripoli Airport, and there have been reports of civilians hit by snipers. Sending another signal to the world, Haftar’s supporters have spooked the global oil market when they decided to block oil exports from five coastal oil terminals, preventing the exit out of the country of up to 800,000 barrels of oil per day. NOC oil company says its daily losses amount to some $55 million. Do these acts and decisions sound like they come from a man who wants peace?

Libya is once again stuck in a dangerous cycle of violence and is set to continue on the same course this year. The problem number one is Khalifa Haftar. And then there are too many cooks in the kitchen and aggressive nations that want to prove that they have what it takes to deserve the label of a “regional power.”  The drama is likely to continue, to the chagrin of the Libyan people. But it also threatened to engulf the entire region this year, including countries to the west of Libya which are trying to stabilize their badly wounded political systems such as Tunisia and Libya.

Berlin peace plan for Libya: main points

Berlin, Jan 19, 2020 (By Imed Lamloum, AFP) – Key players in the Libya crisis and world leaders held a high-stakes summit in Berlin on Sunday to discuss the way forward to end the conflict. Here are the main points they agreed on their final communique, to be put forward as a UN Security Council resolution.

– End to foreign interference –

The Berlin participants “commit to refraining from interference in the armed conflict or in the internal affairs of Libya” and urge all international actors “to do the same”.

– UN arms embargo –

The participants “commit to unequivocally and fully respect and implement the arms embargo” established by the UN in 2011 but frequently violated, and “call on all international actors to do the same”. “We call on all actors to refrain from any activities exacerbating the conflict… including the financing of military capabilities or the recruitment of mercenaries,” the text adds. The document also asks UN experts to monitor and investigate any breaches of the arms embargo “on a continuous basis” and for sanctions to be imposed in case of violations.

– Ceasefire –

The signatories to the final statement “call on all parties concerned to redouble their efforts for a sustained suspension of hostilities, de-escalation and a permanent ceasefire”. They also urge “the redeployment of heavy weapons, artillery and aerial vehicles” and an end to all military movements by, or in direct support of, the conflict parties — throughout Libya and in its airspace, the text reads. The participants invite the United Nations to establish “technical committees” to monitor the implementation of the truce. They call on the UN Security Council “to impose appropriate sanctions on those who are found to be in violation of the ceasefire arrangements and on member states to enforce these”.

– Dissolving militias –

According to the text, the participants want to see “credible steps” towards “the dismantling of armed groups and militias” in Libya, whose members should then be integrated “into civilian, security and military state institutions”. The UN is asked to assist the demobilisation process.

– Return to political process –

The Berlin document urges “all Libyan parties to resume the inclusive Libyan-led and Libyan-owned political process under the auspices of the UNSMIL (the UN Support Mission in Libya)” to reach an intra-Libyan solution. The goal is to pave “the way to end the transitional period” through free, fair and credible parliamentary and presidential elections.

– Human rights and migration –

The participants “urge all parties in Libya to fully respect international humanitarian law and human rights law”. They call for an “end to the practice of arbitrary detention” and urge the Libyan authorities to “gradually close the detention centres for migrants and asylum seekers”.

– Economy and oil –

The participants stressed the importance of restoring and safeguarding the integrity of Libyan institutions, in particular the Central Bank of Libya and the National Oil Corporation (NOC). They urge all parties to guarantee the security of the country’s crucial oil infrastructure, and reject “any illicit exploitation of its energy resources”.

– Follow-up talks –

At the press conference announcing the communique, UN chief Antonio Guterres said Fayez al-Sarraj, the head of the UN-recognised government in Tripoli, and rival strongman Khalifa Haftar, had each appointed five military representatives to attend follow-up talks in Geneva “in the next few days”. The military committee talks are set to focus on consolidating the current fragile ceasefire.

By AFP