Commentary by Arezki Daoud: The United Nations and its envoy, Mr. Ghassan Salame have an interesting take on peacemaking and country building. They have been sponsoring conference after conference, none of which produced any positive outcome. And they are it again. AFP below reports that the UN is working to organize yet another one of those gatherings, “capable of producing an outcome that will be accepted by the majority of the Libyans.” I predict, just as it happened in the previous ones, this conference will result in nothing more than photo opportunities and the occasion for the world media to wonder if Marshal Haftar will attend. In the last conference in Italy, all the talk was about if the eastern strongman would even show up, and I can tell you the man loved the attention. Juts like a retired rock star, he was all smiles when he was greeted by reporters and photographers. I still think the UN’s intentions, and certainty those of Mr. Salame are noble. But Libya is in a league of its own, a nightmare for any diplomat who tries to fix it.
But seriously, not being a diplomat, I do not have an recommendation on the course of action that must be taken to reach peace in Libya. But, if forced to chime in, I could only see two options:
Option 1: You do a backdoor deal(s). You gather whomever is absolutely capable to speak on behalf of their respective communities and engage in a non-stop conversation on what Libya ought to be but not in public. This is because public statements and conferences create expectations and if they are not met, then despair sets in. Who do you engage is crucial. Anyone with no major impact on their communities as leaders cannot and should not be part of this. They add more noise and many of them like to speak to the press, so forget about secrecy. One of the things that must be acknowledged is that as much as we love the idea of “win-win,” someone [possibly all of them] is going to lose something. So you need to set the expectation that although there is going to be some :taking,” there will also be some “giving,” perhaps even a lot, and for some, more “giving” than “taking.” When a deal is reached, then perhaps you can expand the pool of participants and just figure out a way to impose the deal. Meanwhile, stop the press statements, interviews and conferences… they are counterproductive.
Option 2: Let’s be honest, the previous option looks too good to happen. The protagonists on the ground in Libya hate each others. Foreign meddling is like nothing we’ve seen before, so even if the Libyans are ready for peace, the likes of Qatar, Turkey, France, Italy, Egypt, the Saudis, etc…may not be. So what’s the second option? let the fire extinguish by itself. Sad and frightening idea but nothing is permanent, including wars. There have been numerous recent cases of wars ultimately ending after their rivals reached an intense level of fatigue, most got really old, and decided to “retire.” One example was neighboring Algeria, with it dark decade of the 1990s, when the military was facing a seemingly insurmountable Islamist rebellion. More than 10 years of misery eventually ended because the fire got extinguished by itself. The prospect for peace in Libya appears daunting.
————————–
United Nations, United States, Jan 18, 2019 (AFP) – The United Nations is planning to organize a national conference in Libya in the coming weeks to pave the way for elections in the strife-torn north African country, a UN envoy said Friday. Ghassan Salame did not announce a date or venue for the conference and stressed the meeting must be held “under the right conditions, with the right people” capable of producing an outcome that will be accepted by the majority of Libyans.
Addressing the Security Council by video-conference from Tripoli, Salame said a “key outcome of the national conference must be to spell out the
electoral path ahead.” Elections in Libya are meant to turn the page on years of chaos following the 2011 overthrow of Moamer Kadhafi that has seen a bitter rivalry emerge between two governments scrambling for control in the oil-rich north African country.
The United Nations supports the government in Tripoli but is working toward holding elections, possibly this year, to unite the country. A French-backed plan for a vote last December fell apart when the United States, Russia and other powers at the Security Council refused to endorse the
timetable. Salame said the national conference would be aimed at building support for holding credible elections. “Fundamentally, there must be genuine political support for whatever election is conducted and guarantees that the results will be accepted and respected by all,” he said.
Salame addressed the council following a visit to volatile southern Libya — the first trip by a UN envoy to that region since 2012. The United Nations will re-open an office in the eastern city of Benghazi at the end of this month and plans to establish a presence in southern Libya this year.
