By Arezki Daoud: Since 2011, Libya has been engulfed in a bloody civil war after the death of Muammar Gaddafi. Over the years, it was easy to identify the problem: too many foreign regional players and global powers meddling in Libya’s affairs, explicitly or implicitly seeking to impose their vision on what Libya ought to be through local proxies. These foreign meddlers had no shortage of proxies within Libya. One of them is the so-called internationally recognized Government of National Unity based in Tripoli in the northwest of the country, headed by Prime Minister Abdulhamid Dbeibeh. And then in Sirte is the rival entity called the Government of National Stability led by Osama Hamada. The latter is supported by the House of Representatives and the Libyan National Army, both essentially representing eastern Libya. Although from an optic perspective he was appointed by the Libyan House of Representatives as commander of the Tobruk-based Libyan National Army, self-proclaimed Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar is the man who calls the shots in eastern Libya and beyond. He is the man who many foreign parties like to talk to, despite the existence of two competing Prime Ministers and two legislative bodies. Remaining analysis is below the video podcast:
As the years passed, these rival governments and their networks of militias and foreign mercenaries waged a brutal war against each other with countless losses among them and the Libyan population. Apparent efforts by some domestic and international players to stabilize Libya over the years generated waves of hopes, but all efforts eventually failed to lead to the reunification of the country under one big government project.
Today, I reached the conclusion that a unified Libya is unlikely to take shape anytime soon. Events on the ground are evidence that the country is settling into a comfortable state of limbo. The competing groups may have scaled back their military activities, but they have no intention of scaling back their political ambitions. This state of limbo is occurring due to two factors, once again both related to meddling of outside players. First is meddlers’ fatigue. The UAE, Turkey, Russia, France, Italy, Egypt, the EU and so many others have had equal contribution to the destabilization of Libya, pouring about the same amounts of support to one party or the other, hence canceling each other’s out in what has been clearly a zero-sum game given that no one has won. No foreign meddler appears to have had a dominant impact on the Libyan crisis over time to affect change. And after sending huge amounts of money and military equipment, sponsoring mercenaries, and supporting diplomatically one party or the other, foreign meddlers are tired and taking a break.
The second factor is the major geopolitical changes affecting global and regional powers’ own situations. With the wars in Gaza and Ukraine and the most recent developments in the Sahel, which has been experiencing a resurgence of military juntas with anti-western tendencies, many governments active in the Libyan crisis are experiencing diminishing interests in the battered North African nations. Some like Egypt do not have the financial resources to sustain their support of Haftar. Others like the UAE and Russia are embroiled in other geopolitical theaters like in the Sahel and in Sudan, hence refocusing their current attention away from Libya.
As a result, the situation in Libya today is ripe for the existing elites to take advantage of the apparent Balkanization of their country. And outsiders appear to have no problem with that.
Case in point: visiting Libya in the second week of May, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni not only met with Abdelhamid Dbeibeh, the so-called Prime Minister of the Government of National Unity in Tripoli, but found it important to also meet separately, of course, Marshal Haftar in his office in east Benghazi, as if the two men govern two separate republics. What is certain is that the importance of Haftar is such that he and Meloni did not only discuss security and military matters, as one would expect, but they also addressed “commercial, economic and cultural affairs,” as reported by Haftar’s own press office. Now remember that Haftar is the head of one military faction, and yet foreign leaders find it important to engage with him on civilian government affairs. This is a not so settled way to perpetuate the status quo and maintain the state of division that has been hurting the Libyan people. Meloni spoke of the same issues with Tripoli-based Prime Minister Abdulhamid Dbeibah and Head of the Presidential Council, Mohammed Menfi: immigration, economic development, infrastructure investment, etc.
In this abnormal new normal, we see the usual signs of instability progressing along with a flurry of what appears to be normal government and civilian activities. These events seem to evolve side by side as if they are business as usual. But they are conducted by rival governments.
In Haftar-ruled eastern Libya, foreign nations China and Saudi Arabia have recently sent massive shipments of agricultural equipment from tractors and agricultural machinery to irrigation and spraying systems to benefit Haftar’s National Development Agency. Acting directly on the orders of Haftar, the National Development Agency noted these shipments were the result of Haftar’s involvement, essentially acting as head of state. And naturally Haftar feels empowered since like Italy’s Meloni, the Chinese and the Saudis appear to be dealing with him directly, considering him as unavoidable. These positions from these nations natural reinforce Libya’s state of limbo. It gives power to an unofficial and illegitimate militia, hence perpetuating the state of crisis facing the North African nation.
In this new environment, foreign airlines too are starting to resume their flights to Libya. After Italy lifted its air embargo on Libya mid-year 2023, Royal Jordanian and Qatar Airways are preparing to link Jordan and Qatar to Tripoli in this month of May 2024. A third airline, Saudi Airlines, is reported to be in talks to also resume flights to and from Libya. The Libyans of Tripoli are now focusing their efforts on building a passenger terminal with Italian support to accommodate the resumption of air travel. And although it feels like normalcy has returned, the project is facing financial hurdles.
But as the occasional observer would assume the situation is improving in Libya based on newspaper headlines highlighting progress here and development there, other events suggest that the country continues to struggle with so many factors dividing it. Just a week ago, the district of Aljmail in Tripoli experienced violent clashes with unidentified gunmen randomly shooting at buildings. Clashes in the district have been a permanent fixture of the security environment, essentially making the lives of people unbearable. Efforts by the Tripoli government to force militias back into their bases failed to deliver and violence remains normal. Clashes have taken place in different regions. One of them involved security forces tied to the government in Tripoli against an Amazigh militia in Zawia, some 50 KM west of Tripoli.
These are only two cases among the many that hint on the continued instability of Libya. With the world focused on Gaza and on Ukraine, there is no chance for Libya to exit out of its doldrums any time soon. We should expect the country to settle into a two-track situation: the first is foreign nations will do business with all rival entities, hence enabling the strengthening of the regional governments in a balkanized model. Daily news and newspaper headlines will make efforts to show normalized activities taking place, like more airlines resuming operations and administrations making normal decisions. The second but parallel track will emphasize continued instability in the country’s security system. Clashes like the one that rocked Aljmail risk have become trivial and normal matter. And that is far from being normal.
