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By Arezki Daoud: It is not total panic mode yet, but there is a feeling that the situation is bubbling up a bit more every day and could get out of control. Most of the pressure that has been building can be attributed to the hype coming out of the traditional and social media. It is impossible to be anywhere in the world and not be aware of the fast-spreading coronavirus. The fact that the entire country of Italy is on lock down has got to be front page of every paper in the world.
Across North Africa, the situation is roughly about the same in most countries, although the Libyans say the country so far has been spared. I am not so convinced that this is the case, but given the civil war there, there are no properly functioning public health authorities to address the crisis. But the fact that Libya is a stone’s throw away from Italy and that many Italian companies are operating there, it is fair to challenge the assumption that the country is isolated from the pandemic.
Elsewhere, the populations are starting to panic, and that is, perhaps, going to be the biggest source of problems for authorities to contain. The Algerian western city of Mascara has been gripped by panic ever since the announcement on 4 March of the first two coronavirus cases. A resident said “We have neither the culture of prevention nor the human and technical means to deal with the epidemic.” The prices of protective masks and gels have more than tripled. All over the province, residents are complaining about the shortage of masks in pharmacies, with the average price moving from DZD 15 per unit to DZD 200 today.
In Tunisia, AFP reported the price of garlic has risen to around 20-25 dinars ($7-$8.85) a kilo because people believe garlic will help protect them against the new coronavirus. This is a myth that has been rejected by the World Health Organization.
Globally in the region, most of the outbreak is in its infancy, with governments calling it phase one, meaning it is under observation and surveillance status, while attempting to contain the spread. The problem is that once you have a confirmed case, it seems that the spread becomes inevitable. Then it is a matter of two other things: does a country have the resources to manage what’s coming next, and does it have the right leadership to manage the crisis. On the latter, it is still early to see who is doing well and who is not. There is a strong militarized command-and-control process taking place in Egypt. In Morocco, there is the traditional European model being followed, where the initiatives come from the Ministry of Health, and generally backed by the monarchy. The same applies to Tunisia, which follows about the same operational procedures as France. In Algeria, the situation is extremely confusing, considering that the country has a government that is not accepted by the population, which is in the midst of a Hirak movement that precisely seeks to get rid of the current regime. In practical terms, does the Tebboune government have the ability to impose rules on the Hirak in the current situation without risking worsening its already battered position?
So where are we today? After the announcements of the first cases, came the series of announcements more cases, but the numbers remain relatively low. Over the past couple of days, the first deaths have been announced, and as expected the deceased are individuals over the age of 80 who are reported to have had health issues and the COVID-19 ended weakening them.
On the country-by-country basis, Morocco announced on Tuesday, 10 March 2020 its first coronavirus-related death, an 89-year-old woman who suffered from chronic health problems and who died at a the Casablanca hospital. The deceased person lived in Italy but returned to Morocco in late February not knowing that she was infected. Morocco has also confirmed two cases of another Moroccan national who came from Italy and a French tourist who was visiting Marrakesh. They have been quarantined and are under treatment. The Moroccan authorities are following about the same procedures as the French. They have imposed restrictions on sporting and cultural events, including closing stadiums. The tourism sector, which generates substantial revenues to the country is expected to take a hit this quarter and next. The National federation of the hotel industry already announced that 10,000 people have cancelled their trip to Marrakesh and business owners are bracing for possible recession.
Algeria too announced its first death from the novel coronavirus on 12 March (update: another announced after this release). In all, 25 people have been confirmed positive for COVID-19, with 17 members of the same family clustered in the Boufarik district of Bouira province. The first case was that of an Italian national who traveled to oil hub Hassi Mesaoud, and then was airlifted to Italy. As in the cases in Morocco, the original carriers of the virus were tied to Europe and in the five new cases announced on Thursday, two are Algerians who had been in France, both currently being treated in hospitals in Souk Ahras and Tizi Ouzou. The three others were being treated in a hospital in the Blida area. Hospital sources say the two other infected people, a 78-year-old woman and her 54-year-old daughter are in a hospital in the western city of Mascara, and were infected with the coronavirus during a wedding party in Beni Mered, located 7 km from Boufarik, in the province of Blida.
The most drastic decision thus far was President Abdelmajid Tebboune on Thursday ordering the closure of primary schools, colleges, high schools and universities until 5 April. Algeria also announced on Tuesday that it would cancel a range of events including political gatherings as a precaution against the spread of the new coronavirus, that include football matches that will take place without fans and spectators. It is unclear how it will deal with the Friday anti-government rallies (the Hirak) but there is strong likelihood of a more severe police crackdown going forward, which would further harden the Hirak movement.
Tunisia has registered six cases of the novel coronavirus, most are people who had been in Italy. A seventh person infected with the virus has returned to France. Authorities are trying to contain the situation as best they can. A cruise ship of the Tunisian Navigation Company CTN, with 833 passengers on board, mainly Tunisians coming from Marseille, docked on 12 March at the port of La Goulette. They were all placed in auto-quarantine that would last 14 days. Its first case was announced on Monday, 2 March 2020, related to a person who returned from Italy on Thursday, 27 February, aboard a boat that carried 250 passengers. Authorities hinted that the person is a Tunisian national, without providing full confirmation. All the other passengers are reported to have been placed under surveillance and will also undergo tests. The Tunisian authorities said that all measures are taken to avoid spreading the virus. The authorities have put in place a system to monitor airports, ports and border crossings, but it will be difficult to identify all potential carriers. The have also set up a toll-free number and asked individuals who suspect of carrying the virus to call rather than go to the hospital.
Egypt also reported its first coronavirus-relate death. This was a 60-year old German tourist who died in a resort in the Red Sea’s Hurghada region. In all, the total number of confirmed cases jumped to 67 as of Wednesday, 11 March, with a cluster of at least 45 cases on a River Nile cruise ship in Luxor. Large public gatherings have been banned, including group activities in schools.
All in all, there are substantial efforts underway that appear to have been rolled out by the North Africa a little earlier than say what some of the Europeans did. This is because the North Africans have had a bit of time to observe the big developments taking in place in China and Europe, so they could not say that they did not have early warnings. The same good news can be said about the other African countries that have reported cases of COVID-19, such as Nigeria, Burkina Faso, Cameroon, South Africa, the DR Congo and Togo.
But it is clear that we are headed toward major disruption of our daily lives. The economies of all the countries affected, and therefore the global economy have already lost billions and we are told that there is more to come. I had a brief look at my 401K this morning and I sure did not like what I saw. Beside that, the fact that the world does now have a cure to the virus is pretty alarming to say the least, and expecting Africans to put forward a disciplined approach to containment is not reasonable. Extremely weak public health infrastructure amid extremely low budgets for the sector, shortages in medical staff, and low-paid doctors and nurses are the tip of the iceberg when it comes to epidemic readiness and crisis management. And we should also be concerned about the skills that African governments have (or do not have) to ride this crisis.
