North Africa’s Security
Security | Defense | Terrorism
Mali: Russian-linked Forces Under Drone Pressure in Northern Mali
Armed groups in northern Mali are shifting toward repeatable FPV drone strikes against Malian army and Russian-linked Africa Corps positions. Recent attacks in Anéfis and Aguelhok indicate a tactical evolution that challenges the assumption of operational sanctuary in the Kidal region.
SECURITY & DEFENSE
Morocco Allegations Reignite Spain’s Pegasus Debate
New reporting has revived scrutiny of the 2021 Pegasus intrusion targeting Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s phone, focusing on the Ceuta visit as a potential operational opening and renewing debate over attribution, accountability, and Spain’s wider relationship with Morocco, including questions raised by Morocco’s growing security ties with Israel.
Egypt and Turkey Test Pragmatic Rapprochement After Years of Estrangement
Egypt and Turkey are cautiously rebuilding relations after years of estrangement, driven by shifting regional dynamics and converging state interests. Recent defense-industrial cooperation and renewed diplomatic engagement point to a pragmatic recalibration rather than full political reconciliation, as both countries test whether managed coordination can replace prolonged rivalry.
Egypt Deepens Defense-Industrial Engagement With China
Egypt is advancing defense-industrial cooperation with China through localized production, joint exercises, and expanded military training links. Developments during 2025 point to a pragmatic effort by Cairo to diversify suppliers and strengthen domestic manufacturing capacity, while Beijing cautiously broadens engagement beyond conventional arms sales.
Southern Libya Boils Over: Three Haftar Soldiers Killed in Border Raid Near Niger
Three soldiers loyal to Libyan commander Khalifa Haftar were killed and several others captured in coordinated attacks on border posts near Niger, underscoring how southern Libya has become a key fault line in the country’s fractured security landscape. Fighters claiming to represent “revolutionaries of the South” say they are targeting Haftar’s forces over dire living conditions and alleged resource plunder, as cross-border armed groups test the limits of state control from Al-Tum to the Salvador Pass.
Sudan Conflict: Egypt’s Military Escalation After the Fall of El‑Fasher
Egypt appears to have shifted from diplomatic broker to covert combatant in Sudan’s war, with new evidence pointing to drone and air strikes launched from a secret base in the Western Desert. Satellite imagery, flight logs and investigations indicate that Egypt has established a covert airbase at the East Oweinat agricultural project, roughly 65 kilometers from the Sudanese border, to launch strikes against Rapid Support Forces (RSF) targets deep inside Sudan. The operations mark Egypt’s evolution from cautious mediator to active, if deniable, belligerent on the side of Sudan’s Armed Forces, as the conflict becomes the focal point of widening regional proxy rivalries involving the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Qatar.
Niger Airport Attack Deepens Sahel’s Security and Diplomatic Strains
An overnight assault on the air base embedded in Niamey’s international airport has pushed Niger’s crisis into the capital, wounding soldiers and damaging civilian aircraft. The United States has ordered non‑essential diplomatic staff to leave, while other governments tighten “avoid all travel” warnings, signaling a broader reassessment of risk. As Niamey accuses foreign states and militants claim responsibility, the episode underscores how security, regime politics, and great‑power rivalry now collide in the Sahel.
Defense: Mauritania and Spain Use Naval Exercises to Bolster Atlantic Maritime Security
Mauritania and Spain have carried out joint naval exercises off Nouadhibou, built around a port visit by the Spanish patrol vessel Furor and focused on navigation safety and operational coordination. The drills, paired with visits to Mauritanian military installations, signal a tightening maritime partnership in Atlantic waters that are central to security, fisheries, and migration routes. Officials in Nouakchott present the cooperation as part of a broader effort to strengthen maritime stability and protect shared interests at sea.
Egypt’s Red Lines in the Horn of Africa Are Becoming Explicit
Egypt’s expanding posture in Somalia and its firm stance on Sudan reveal a coherent security doctrine taking shape along its southern and southeastern perimeter. Cairo is drawing explicit red lines against state collapse, territorial fragmentation, and the emergence of parallel authorities in strategically sensitive areas of the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea basin.
Egypt Moves to Shore Up Somalia as Regional Alignments Shift in the Horn of Africa
Egypt has expanded the scope of its military and security engagement in Somalia following Israel’s recognition of Somaliland, a self-declared breakaway region on the Gulf of Aden. Egyptian officials view the move as part of a broader shift in Horn of Africa geopolitics that could affect Red Sea security, Nile water negotiations, and regional power balances.
Mali: Gold Mining Site in Sikasso Region Hit by Armed Group
An armed attack on the Morila gold mine in southern Mali caused material damage and forced a temporary suspension of operations. Security forces were deployed to regain control of the site, and employees held during the incident were released unharmed. The attack highlights ongoing security risks facing economic infrastructure across the Sahel.
INSURGENCIES & TERRORISM
Sahel: Foreign Workers Targeted in New Mali Kidnappings
A string of recent kidnappings in western and northern Mali—including the abduction of five Indian technicians and an Emirati businessman—highlights the increasing risks for foreign workers engaged in energy, mining, and infrastructure projects. The evolving tactics of armed groups and complex negotiation processes have led companies to overhaul security protocols and adjust operations to cope with persistent threats.
Mali: Bamako Strikes Back as JNIM Expands Its Rule
Mali’s military launched air raids in Ségou just days after jihadists announced new sharia‑based restrictions and widened their blockade. The standoff now defines who controls the roads, fuel, and daily life in central Mali.
Sahel: Surging Jihadist Violence Batters the Sahel, Exposing Government Weakness
Jihadist violence has surged across the Sahel, with militants overrunning military bases, ambushing convoys, and forcing civilians to negotiate with armed groups for survival. Hardest hit are conflict corridors in Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, and northeastern Nigeria, where blockades and insecurity have left millions displaced or trapped in besieged communities.
Morocco Busts ‘Lions of the Caliphate’ Terror Cell After Yearlong Probe
Moroccan security services arrested 12 operatives of the so-called “Lions of the Caliphate in the Maghreb Al-Aqsa” after a yearlong investigation. Authorities say the terror cell, linked to Daesh in the Sahel, had a weapons cache in Errachidia and planned attacks in Morocco.
Tunisia Detains Russians Tourists on Suspicion of Terrorism
Eleven Russians arrested in Tunisia in late 2024 are suspected of terrorism. AFP says authorities claim they possessed equipment inconsistent with tourism during their visit to Haïdra near the Algerian border.
Moroccan Truck Drivers and Spanish Tourists Freed After Kidnapping in Burkina Faso and Southern Algeria
Four Moroccan truck drivers and a Spanish national kidnapped in the Sahel were freed this week, with both now safe under protection.
Book: Lafarge Group and the Islamic State
Lafarge’s indictment for financing terrorism reveals corporate entanglements with ISIS to maintain operations in Syria. In Personne morale, Justine Augier exposes how multinationals like Lafarge navigate ethics and profit in conflict zones, raising questions on global accountability.
Mali: Wagner and Junta leaders in tough spot with series of embarrassing defeats and decisions to make
(Photo from unconfirmed video showing an insurgent burning the presidential plane in Bamako. The person filming the attack speaks in Peul or Fulani language) By Arezki Daoud: This week’s attacks on the Malian capital of Bamako highlight the junta's difficulty in...
Mali: JNIM raids Bamako in direct threat to military junta
On Tuesday, 17 September 2024, Bamako, the capital of Mali, was the target of coordinated attacks claimed by the JNIM. At least two military sites, including a gendarmerie training facility, were raided as early as 5 a.m. The targeted sites were the Faladié...
Tunisia: Harsh Conditions for Migrants in North Africa as they Seek Path to Italy
Nearly 80% of migrants in Tunisia are exclusively interested in migrating to Italy. The finding may be intuitive given the geographical location of Tunisia and its proximity to Italy, but it also reflects that fact that Tunisia is not seen as the final destination for most migrants. Migrants say their struggles in Tunisia makes Italy inevitably more attractive.