Over one turbulent weekend in mid‑October 2025, Mali’s army announced a series of airstrikes against jihadist strongholds just as the country’s most powerful al‑Qaeda affiliate, Jama’at Nusrat al‑Islam wal‑Muslimin (JNIM), released a new video spelling out its terms for peace: the full enforcement of Islamic law across Mali and obedience to its social edicts in areas under its influence.
A Nation Under Siege
Since July, JNIM has gradually tightened its blockade of the roads linking Bamako to the ports of Senegal and Côte d’Ivoire, choking off nearly 80 percent of Mali’s fuel supply. With convoys of tankers attacked or burned and drivers abducted in the southern and western regions, the capital now faces widespread shortages that have emptied gas stations and sent food and transport prices soaring.
From its bases in the forests of western and central Mali, the organization has transformed traditional warfare into economic strangulation. Its fighters levy informal taxes at roadblocks, loot freight trucks, and exert social control on local communities. The blockade has also become a propaganda tool: JNIM tells residents that only under its rule can trade resume safely.
The Latest Ultimatum
In its newest video, JNIM spokesperson Abu Hudheifah al‑Bambari declared that peace would come only with nationwide sharia and warned villagers against collaborating with the army or local “donso” self‑defense militias. He also rescinded a transport ban against Diarra Transport, a regional bus company, but imposed a new rule: all women traveling must now be fully veiled, even for personal trips.
The demands mirror the group’s broader ambition to govern by enforcement rather than persuasion. In parts of central Mali, footage circulating online shows women adhering to the dress requirement and transport companies publicly apologizing to JNIM to maintain access to their routes.
Bamako’s Counter‑Offensive
Bamako responded with force. On October 19 and 20, the Malian Air Force carried out concentrated strikes in Ségou and Diolla, hitting forest encampments and training camps near Dougabougou. Official statements claimed “dozens of terrorists neutralized,” an attack drone shot down, and bomb‑making equipment seized. Pro‑government newspapers hailed the operation as a success, sharing images of burned motorcycles and destroyed hideouts.
However, the impact may prove temporary. JNIM units, affiliated with the Katiba Macina faction, have repeatedly survived such bombardments, dispersing deeper into rural areas before re‑emerging along the same roads weeks later.
A Strategic Stalemate
The Malian junta, led by Colonel Assimi Goïta, has cast its campaign as a test of sovereignty since expelling UN peacekeepers and aligning militarily with Russia. Yet, with the blockade now paralyzing economic activity and extending toward key mining regions, the government’s legitimacy is eroding. According to humanitarian monitors, the blockade could reduce Mali’s GDP by several points if fuel shortages persist through 2025.
Meanwhile, Russia‑linked contractors of the Africa Corps—the successor to the Wagner Group—are reportedly coordinating air and intelligence missions from bases outside Bamako. Their presence underlines how Mali’s counterinsurgency has become entwined with global power rivalries, even as daily life grows harsher for ordinary citizens.
Living Under JNIM’s Rules
Across much of central Mali, communities find themselves making pragmatic choices between submission and survival. Traders abide by JNIM’s checkpoints to keep their businesses alive. Transport companies obey the new dress mandate to avoid retaliation.
For the junta, these air raids offered a symbolic win. For JNIM, the video reaffirmed its hold not only on territory but on the narrative of power — that it, and not the state, dictates who moves, who trades, and how people live. After years of insurgency, Mali’s battle lines are now also about controlling commerce and morality.
