Shield and Alert: Maghreb Bound

As Libya approaches 2026, the country remains locked in a prolonged political impasse marked by competing authorities, delayed elections, and sustained foreign involvement. Rival governments and security structures continue to operate in parallel, limiting the ability of Libyan institutions to exercise unified control. Regional and international actors remain deeply embedded in Libya’s political and security environment, shaping outcomes through strategic alliances and informal arrangements. While large-scale conflict has been contained, the absence of a nationally driven political settlement leaves Libya’s sovereignty constrained and its long-term stability uncertain.

A Tunis appeals court has confirmed a two-year prison sentence against opposition leader Abir Moussi, upholding a conviction linked to allegations of digital misinformation and defamation. The ruling, tied to a case initiated by Tunisia’s election authority, comes amid a wider use of legal provisions governing online speech in politically sensitive cases.

Saudi–Emirati tensions over Yemen have reignited a debate about how the United Arab Emirates projects power beyond the Gulf, particularly across Africa and the Maghreb. The public rupture with Saudi Arabia over Yemen has drawn attention to a broader pattern in which Abu Dhabi is accused of using proxy actors, military support, media influence, and selective alliances to shape outcomes in fragile conflict zones. From Libya and Sudan to the Western Sahara file, the UAE has emerged as a consequential external actor whose involvement often intersects with local rivalries, unresolved conflicts, and competing regional interests.

Algeria’s foreign policy operates on two distinct tracks: strained relations with France shaped by unresolved colonial grievances and demands for formal apologies, versus pragmatic stability with the United States built on security cooperation and mutual interests. While bilateral tensions with France affect diplomatic trust despite ongoing cooperation in trade and security, the US relationship remains transactional and avoided historical complications even during the Trump administration. Algeria pursues diplomatic diversification across multiple powers to maintain strategic autonomy rather than replacing one partner with another.