Shield and Alert: Sahel Bound

A low-profile but consequential rivalry between the United Arab Emirates and Qatar is reshaping access to the Red Sea. Through competing alliances, port investments, and security partnerships, both Gulf states are extending their influence across the Horn of Africa. At the center of this struggle lies Somaliland, whose strategic coastline, port infrastructure, and political status have become critical factors in a broader contest involving regional and extra-regional powers.

Relations between Benin and Niger have entered a more confrontational phase following reciprocal diplomatic expulsions, reflecting deeper political and security disagreements. Since Niger’s military takeover, diverging regional alignments and growing mutual suspicion have complicated dialogue, with consequences extending beyond diplomacy to trade flows, border communities, and regional stability in West Africa.

As the European Union prepares to implement its revised migration framework in mid-2026, coordination between Italy and North African states is already reshaping how migration is managed across the Mediterranean. The new approach shifts operational responsibility away from EU territory and toward transit countries in the Maghreb, with a growing focus on returns rather than border enforcement. While framed as regional cooperation, the emerging system raises questions about governance, funding transparency, and the capacity of transit states to absorb migrants who are unable to move forward or return home. The result may be fewer arrivals in Europe, but increased pressure and instability along the southern Mediterranean.

Irregular migration to Spain declined significantly in 2025 following a record year in 2024, according to official figures. The drop was driven primarily by a sharp reduction in sea crossings to the Canary Islands, long one of Europe’s most dangerous migration routes. Enhanced maritime surveillance and expanded cooperation between Spain, the European Union, and key departure countries in West and North Africa played a central role in reducing Atlantic crossings. At the same time, arrivals to Spain did not disappear but shifted geographically, with increased landings reported in the Balearic Islands via the western Mediterranean. The figures highlight how enforcement measures can reshape migration patterns while leaving underlying pressures and humanitarian risks largely unchanged.