From the EditorF

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Opinion by Arezki Daoud: 10 March 2019:  The Algerian popular uprising appears to have reached its next phase. After millions took to the streets across Algerian cities, and continue to do so, the protest movement seems to be shifting to the industrial and business sectors, making it harder for the regime to maintain a status-quo and pretend that it is just a passing phase.  Already several sector unions, generally tied to the disgraced government-controlled UGTA labor union (profile), have broken ranks with UGTA to either announce their support to the protesters and/or entirely reject Bouteflika’s fifth mandate.  Some unions may be minor, like the one of the state-owned TV enterprise ENTV. Some protesters may be less threatening, like high-school students forcing a shut down of their schools to continue protesting on the streets. But others are more critical to the Algerian economy and therefore to the very survival of the regime, including the public transport sector, the port terminal of Bejaia and the steel-maker of Hadjar in Annaba.  The country is headed toward a complete economic standstill, with several public companies already engaged in industrial action this Sunday, the most recent being the mobile phone company Mobilis. Another scary move for the UGTA ahead is the loss of control of the union in vehicle-maker SNVI, which announced a four-day strike starting tomorrow Monday, 11 March 2019.

As the industrial sector heads toward the freezing point, members of the regime are expected to fight internally on how to conclude this nasty chapter.  Nasty for them, but a moment of pride for the Algerian people. The return of Bouteflika from Switzerland, likely landing in Algiers as this article is posted, probably means that he and others will be meeting to put the final touches on a solution they will propose to the people in a few hours time. The biggest hurdle to a logical and positive outcome will not be the president himself given that he is physically and mentally degraded, probably keen on leaving the spotlight, but his brothers, in particular the shadowy Grand Vizir and entirely obscure Said Bouteflika and the clan he represents. The clan is a group of business barons and oligarchs, headed by the not-so-loved Ali Haddad (profile), who have the most to lose in the normalization of governance. 

The most rumored outcome to be offered by the regime is a 10-12 month transition period headed by some veteran politician or diplomat who may have had less exposure to corruption in Algeria and is seen by the Algerian public as a lesser evil.  Already the presidency has met with veteran diplomats Ramtane Lamamra (profile) and Lakhdar Brahimi (profile). But that means conceding defeat and declaring that the incumbent president has decided to retire.  Easier said than done when considering that the extremists in the regime will put up a tough fight.

Regardless, the military will probably be the final referee and will end up calling the shots.  Despite all that was said about the security services, the Algerian military and the Interior Ministry have behaved responsibly and focused on protecting assets, facilities and people.  This situation is also evidence that the Bouteflika brothers failed to get all the state institutions toe their line. They are now witnessing resistance they probably thought disappeared when they dismantled the intelligence agency DRS. They are clearly wrong.

So what’s ahead for Bouteflika?  The good news for him is there is a general compassion among the Algerian population toward him.  He is old and ill and there is no appetite among the people to punish a man reaching the end of his life.  The Tunisia’s Ben Ali scenario whereby the dictator had to run and hide in Saudi Araba is therefore an unlikely scenario.  It’s not good for the country and for the man whose name has been associated with Algeria’s government since 1962.  He is bad shape, past the retirement age, and deserves some honorable exit, even though he ruined his country by not engaging in real nation building with laws and structures that advance democracy and punish corruption.  Instead, Bouteflika will end his tenure as a another historical figure that did nothing to advance his country. 

Egypt’s Mohamed Morsi’s scenario is not likely either, because the Algerian military is a lot closer to the people than Egypt’s and the generals there tend to be less ruthless than General Sisi.  There is no appetite in the defense establishment to fight a political fight, when the country faces real security threats. 

So Bouteflika has only two options left:  option one follows the path of disgraced Venezuelan leader Nicolas Maduro, and pushes for a full-blown, out-of-control crisis that would lead to violence and destabilize the entire region. The other option, the better one, is an honorable exit, retire and let a healthier, less corrupt person drive the next 12-month transition period.  Watch for news on Monday, 11 March, but I won’t be surprised if an announcement from the presidency comes tonight.