By Nicolas Beau | MondAfrique:
The specter of an unprecedented political crisis looms over Senegal with President Macky Sall’s decision to suspend the presidential election scheduled February 25. The latter’s desire to impose his protege Amadou Ba at all costs as his successor and the instrumentalization of justice to neutralize the main opponents have plunged the Senegalese electoral process into a complete stalemate.
Nothing is settled or final in this decision, as anything can still happen, even the worst case scenario. Forced by Senegal’s deep state and those overseeing security and intelligence not to run for a third term, Senegalese President Macky Sall announced in July 2023 that he would not seek another term. His decision, which was largely dictated by the context of escalating violence and political tensions, resulted in a sigh of relief both in Senegal and abroad.
Had the “Symbol of Democracy” in French-speaking Africa saved its image and reputation? Was the specter of a sociopolitical crisis that would have plunged the country in chaos prevented? We wanted to believe it, unfortunately there is now every reason to believe that Senegal, whose President has just suspended the presidential election, could become a zone of deep turbulence.
A Disliked Protégé:
In the euphoria of the announcement of his renunciation of the third term, the presidential coalition Beno Bokk Yakar (BBY in Wolof, “Hope in Share in French) had allowed Macky Sall to choose who he believed to be the most suitable candidate for succeeding him, hence maintaining his legacy and agenda. The trap has thus engulfed the presidential clan. In the greatest opacity, Macky Sall pulled out of his hat his Prime Minister Amadou Ba, known for being a key player in Senegal’s government bureaucracy, having worked for some 30 years in the tax administration.
In the government context, Amadou Ba is not an aggressive operative. He does not have the reputation of a “tough” man, like his predecessors Abdoulaye Wade and Macky Sall, but that of a man of consensus who always seeks shortcuts to prevent crises.
Ba is also known to be discreet, not comfortable facing big crowds. As a result, the timid beginnings of the per-campaign of Macky’s protégé cast doubt on the position of the presidential camp. Several emblematic figures from the outgoing president’s 12 years of rule have already distanced themselves and decided to run against the one chosen by their former boss. So far loyal among Macky Sall’s followers, his former Interior Minister Aly Ngouille Ndiaye, once considered the regime’s enforcer, will be a dissenting candidate for the ruling coalition. In doubt about Amadou Ba’s chance to guarantee victory, Macky Sall’s former Prime Minister (2014-2019) and former Secretary-General of the Presidency of the Republic, Mohamed Boun Abdallah Dionne wold also run for the February 25 election, should the election take place.
In addition to these “internal enemies,” candidate Ba will have to face even more serious contenders in the presidential race, such as former Prime Minister Idriss Seck, second in 2019, Karim Wade, son of former President Abdoulaye, expected in Dakar in the next few days, after eight years in exile in Qatar.
Another Setback for France:
In the midst of the controversy over the holding of the Senegalese presidential election, which promises to be chaotic and turbulent, Paris has chosen to roll out the red carpet at the end of 2023 to Amadou Ba as part of a Franco-Senegalese government meeting. The symbol of a Senegalese-Candidate Prime Minister, smiling to the media alongside his French counterpart Elisabeth Borne, was not unnoticed and took many by surprise given the unusual VIP treatment he guest received. At the very least, this journey, which would have gone unnoticed in normal circumstances, was perceived as French interference.
For the opposition, theories of meddling and interference are all the more convincing as French President Emmanuel Macron appointed in November 2023 his Senegalese counterpart Macky Sall as Special Envoy for the Paris Pact on the Peoples and the Planet (4P), all while Macky Sall was still Senegal’s president. The Senegalese opponent Habib Sy of the Hope and Modernity party did not mince his words when he “decried a France that has always understood nothing” to the subtleties of the political life of its former African colonies. Although Paris certainly understands the situation very well and is far from being confused, it may have misunderstood the agendas of Amadou Ba as a Prime Minister and Amadou Ba as a presidential candidate, and the his grandiose reception in Paris in the current context in Senegal is at least a reckless move.
This posture is, in any case, proof that Paris did not learn from the political violence that shook Senegal in March 2021 and June 2023. Ten of the fourteen stores of the French group Auchan had, at that time, been looted in Dakar by rioters who had also raided the petrol stations of Total and the stores of Orange. Emmanuel Macron’s France, receiving so warmly the uncharismatic Amadou Ba, is yet another mistake made by French diplomacy.
Just ten weeks before the presidential election, Macky Sall is at a point of no return in his desire to impose Amadou Ba, including through the use of brute force. If the outgoing president has managed to impose his prime minister on his coalition without resistance, everything indicates that Senegalese voters think otherwise. As if his record alone were not enough to get Ba elected, Macky Sall sought to clear the road to victory by “neutralizing” Ousmane Sonko, his most prominent opponent of the moment. In July 2023, Macky Sall dissolves the ‘Parti des Patriotes du Sénégal pour le Travail, l’Ethique et la Fraternité‘ (PASTEF). Against all odds, in November 2023, he fired the 12 members of the National Autonomous Electoral Commission (CENA) and appointed a CENA’s leader, Abdoulaye Sylla, a retired State Inspector General, whom he sees as a more malleable person compared to its outgoing leader.
Despite two legal decisions handed down by the Ziguinchor court in October 2023 and the Dakar court in December 2023, the Directorate-General for Elections (DGE), which comes under the Ministry of the Interior, still refuses to reinstate Ousmane Sonko on the electoral list. This desire to force the presidential fate of his Prime Minister is a huge risk and a big gamble for Macky Sall. The March 2021 political violence that erupted when Ousmane Sonko was charged with alleged rape, and those that erupted in June 2023 following his sentence to prison for alleged “youth corruption,” after the charges for rape were dropped, killed at least 20 people.
In the context of a West Africa hit by a wave of military coups and in the face of the unprecedented level of political tensions in the country, all eyes were riveted on the Senegalese army. Called as a reinforcement of the internal security forces (police, gendarmerie) very largely overwhelmed by events on the ground, the army was careful not to advance too much in the confrontation between Macky Sall and its opponents, agreeing only to deploy a few armored personnel in the streets of Dakar. Scenes of fraternizing protesters with soldiers, widely broadcast on social media, finally raised major concerns among regime operatives. In response, the Senegalese president restructured the military hierarchy by speeding up the departure of Chief of Staff Sheikh Wade, replacing him by General Mbaye Cissé, who was Macky Sall’s private chief of staff.
There is no indication, however, that this takeover of the military hierarchy is sufficient to serve as life insurance for Macky Sall, if he were to persist in his desire to impose Ba on the February 25 presidential election. Macky Sall is making a highly risky gamble, in an attempt that is doomed to failure and which is likely dragging the country into the unknown.
