Tunis, Sept 16, 2019 – Political outsider Kais Saied was leading Tunisia’s elections with just over a quarter of votes counted, the electoral commission said Monday, in the country’s second free presidential vote since the Arab Spring. Saied was on 19 percent, leading imprisoned media magnate Nabil Karoui, who was on 14.9 percent, and ahead of the candidate from the Islamist-inspired Ennahdha party Abdelfattah Mourou (13.1 percent), according to the electoral organ (ISIE).

Prime Minister Youssef Chahed, a presidential hopeful whose popularity has been tarnished by a sluggish economy and the rising cost of living, could well turn out to be the election’s biggest loser. ISIE figures showed him in fifth on 7.4 percent of votes, behind Defence Minister Abdelkarim Zbidi, who was on 9.6 percent.  “The anti-system strategy has won,” ISIE member Adil Brinsi told AFP, warning however there was still a lot to play for among the three leading players. “It’s not finished yet. Mourou could very easily move from third to second place, in front of Karoui,” he added.

Local papers splashed photos across their front pages of law professor Saied and magnate Karoui, after exit polls showed they had qualified for the second round of voting. “An unexpected verdict,” ran a headline in La Presse.  Le Temps titled its editorial “The Slap”, while the Arabic language Echourouk newspaper highlighted a “political earthquake” and a “tsunami” in the Maghreb. It all points towards a major upset for Tunisia’s political establishment, in place since the 2011 uprising that ousted dictator Zine El Abidine Ben Ali. It could also usher in a period of immense uncertainty for the fledgling north African democracy, the sole success story of the Arab Spring revolts. Tunisia’s electoral commission (ISIE) reported low turnout at 45 percent, down from 64 percent in the country’s first democratic polls in 2014. Late Sunday, Chahed called on the liberal and centrist camps to band together for legislative elections set for October 6, voicing concern that low participation was “bad for the democratic transition”.

– ‘Wait and see’ –

The election comes against a backdrop of serious social and economic challenges. Karoui, a 56-year-old media magnate, has been behind bars since August 23 on charges of money laundering and Tunisia’s judiciary has refused to release him three times. “So long as the judicial system does not announce a ruling on Karoui’s case, nothing will change in the second round with regard to this candidate,” in the event that he makes it to the run-off, Brinsi said. However, “if he is convicted between the first and second round, it would be necessary to bypass him and organise a second round involving the third-placed candidate”.

A controversial businessman, labelled a “populist” by critics, Karoui built his appeal by using his Nessma television channel to launch charity campaigns, handing out food aid to some of the country’s poorest. His apparent rival is political neophyte Saied. The highly conservative constitutionalist has shunned political parties and mass rallies; instead, he has opted to go door-to-door to explain his policies. He advocates a rigorous overhaul of the constitution and voting system, to decentralise power “so that the will of the people penetrates into central government and puts an end to corruption”. He also set forth his social conservatism, defending the death penalty, criminalisation of homosexuality and a sexual assault law that punishes unmarried couples who engage in public displays of affection. “It’s going to be new,” said a baker named Said on Monday, issuing a wry smile. “We’ll have to wait and see. Anyway, what matters in Tunisia is the parliament.”

– ‘Disgust’ with political elite –

The first round was marked by high rates of apathy among young voters in particular, pushing ISIE’s head to put out an emergency call to them Sunday an hour before polls closed. On Sunday morning, senior citizen Adil Toumi had asked as he voted in the capital “where are the young people?” Political scientist Hamza Meddeb told AFP “this is a sign of very deep discontent with the political class”. “Disgust with the political elite seems to have resulted in a vote for outsiders.” Distrust of the political establishment runs high in Tunisia, where unemployment is at 15 percent and the cost of living has risen by close to a third since 2016. Jihadist attacks have exacted a heavy toll on the key tourism sector. Around 70,000 security forces were mobilised for the polls. The date of a second and final round between the top two candidates has not been announced, but it must be held by October 23 at the latest and may even take place on the same day as legislative polls, October 6.

Outsiders surge in Tunisia presidential polls

Two candidates who claim they will win through to Tunisia’s presidential run-off — a conservative law expert and an imprisoned media mogul — could hardly be more different, but both bill themselves as political outsiders. Nabil Karoui, behind bars since August 23 on charges of money laundering, is a populist showman whose political colours changed with the times, culminating in the launch of his Qalb Tounes (Heart of Tunisia) party just months ago. Maverick Kais Saied, meanwhile, is an academic committed to social conservatism who has ploughed his own furrow.

Nicknamed “Robocop” due to his abrupt, staccato speech and rigid posture, the impeccably dressed Saied shunned political parties, avoided mass rallies and campaigned door-to-door. Hours after polling booths closed in the country’s second free presidential polls since the 2011 Arab Spring, he declared he was in pole position. “I am first in the first round and if I am elected president I will apply my programme,” he told AFP in a spartan apartment in central Tunis. On the campaign trail, he advocated a rigorous overhaul of the constitution and voting system, to decentralise power “so that the will of the people penetrates into central government and puts an end to corruption”. With a quarter votes counted Monday, Tunisia’s electoral commission (ISIE) put Saied in the lead with 19 percent of the vote. Often surrounded by young acolytes, he has pushed social conservatism, defending the death penalty, criminalisation of homosexuality and a sexual assault law that punishes unmarried couples who engage in public displays of affection.

– Tunisia’s ‘would-be Berlusconi’ –

While Saied came from the sidelines with his unique approach to courting Tunisia’s voters — and did so with barely any money behind him — media magnate Nabil Karoui’s story is more flamboyant. He has long maintained a high profile, using his Nessma TV channel to launch high-profile charity campaigns, often appearing in designer suits even while meeting some of the country’s poorest citizens in marginalised regions. These charitable endeavours, including doling out food aid, “helped me to get closer to people and realise the huge social problems facing the country,” he once told AFP. “I have been touched by it.”

Unlike Saied, he previously threw his lot in with an established political party, officially joining Beji Caid Essebsi’s Nidaa Tounes in 2016, after actively supporting the late president in his successful campaign two years earlier. He formally stepped down from Nessma’s management after being criticised by international observers for his channel’s partisan conduct in 2014. But he subsequently made no secret of continuing to pull the strings at the channel, while honing his political profile. His supporters claim his arrest was politically motivated, but detractors cast him as a would-be Silvio Berlusconi, the former Italian premier who they allege partly owns his channel. The arrest of the controversial Tunisian businessman in August followed his indictment the previous month in an investigation that dates back to 2017 and the submission by anti-corruption watchdog I-Watch of a dossier accusing him of tax fraud.

The 56-year-old was still given the green light to run and hit the campaign trail by proxy, deploying his wife and activists from his Heart of Tunisia party to woo voters. “Nabil Karoui is in the second round,” an official from the mogul’s party told AFP late Sunday, as the businessman sat in prison outside the capital Tunis.

Partial results from ISIE on Monday put him in the second spot. Observers say that if Karoui does make it to the second round, it will be hard for authorities to justify keeping him behind bars without a trial. Saied, meanwhile, has not been immune from discomforting scrutiny. Confronted late last week in a broadcast debate with a photo showing him meeting an ex-member of a banned Salafi group, he asked: “Do I have to ask permission to meet someone?” But in a sign of voters’ antipathy towards the overall field, the ISIE put turnout at 45 percent, down substantially from the 64 percent recorded for the country’s first democratic polls in 2014. The date of a second and final round between the top two candidates has not been announced, but it must be held by October 23 at the latest and may even take place on the same day as legislative polls set for October 6.

By AFP