Morocco is heading into 2026 with a mixed outlook for its cereal sector, as favorable early-season conditions contrast with an expected drop in domestic grain output and rising dependence on foreign supplies, according to a new brief from the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). The agency’s Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS) country note for Morocco, dated February 2, 2026, warns that cereal production in 2025 is likely to remain below average due to prolonged dry weather, even as recent rains have improved planting conditions for the upcoming winter crop.
FAO reports that winter cereal planting operations for the 2026 harvest began late in December 2025 because of delayed rainfall, but subsequent abundant precipitation has boosted water reservoirs, irrigation prospects, and soil moisture in key producing regions, supporting crop establishment and early growth. Satellite-based Vegetation Health Index (VHI) readings as of mid‑January 2026 point to generally favorable crop conditions, although localized rainfall deficits could still hinder development in parts of eastern and central Morocco.
Despite this improved start, overall cereal production for 2025 is estimated at about 4.5 million tons, roughly 13% below the national average, largely as a result of persistent dryness earlier in the season, FAO notes. Cumulative rainfall between December 2024 and February 2025 was more than 60% lower than the long‑term mean in the main cereal belt, and although rains increased in March and April, they came too late to fully restore soil moisture and yields. Barley and wheat were particularly affected, with FAO figures indicating sharp year‑on‑year declines in output compared with the 2020–2024 average.
Because domestic harvests are constrained, Morocco is expected to rely heavily on imports to satisfy demand in the 2025/26 marketing year (July/June), FAO says. Total cereal imports are forecast at around 11 million tons, about 20% above average, reflecting the shortfall in local production and strong consumption needs. The brief notes that an existing wheat subsidy mechanism, used to stabilize prices and support consumer access, has been extended to help manage the impact of tight supplies and volatile international markets.
The pressure on cereal markets is feeding through to consumers. FAO highlights that annual food inflation in Morocco increased significantly in 2025, driven in part by higher grain and bread prices. While enhanced imports and subsidy policies are cushioning the immediate impact on availability, the combination of recurrent drought, structural import dependence, and inflation underscores the vulnerability of Moroccan food security to climate and global price shocks, the GIEWS analysis suggests.
Looking ahead, FAO’s assessment indicates that Morocco’s cereal outlook for 2026 will hinge on how current favorable vegetative conditions evolve over the coming months and whether projected near‑average rainfall materializes through the end of the season. If weather remains supportive, yields could recover from the 2025 downturn, easing import needs in 2026/27; if not, the country may face another year of below‑average harvests and elevated reliance on international markets.
