Shield and Alert: Sahel Bound

Sudan’s army is gaining ground in North Kordofan, securing key transport routes that could support a broader push west toward Darfur. But battlefield advances are unfolding alongside a deepening national crisis, with power grid failures, disrupted agriculture and local conflicts compounding the country’s instability. But this latest military momentum is unlikely to resolve Sudan’s widening humanitarian and infrastructure challenges.

A defection, a blood feud, and overlapping territorial ambitions are pushing JNIM and the Islamic State Sahel Province into direct competition across western Niger. The outcome around the region of Dosso could determine whether Sahelian jihadist violence stays fragmented — or consolidates into a wider regional arc.

Along the Guinea-Mali border, jihadist violence and a fast-moving gold economy are colliding to reshape security, trade and governance. In the Siguiri-Kourémalé corridor, formal border controls, informal crossings and illicit mining networks are all pulling the region in different directions.