Opinion by Arezki Daoud | June 4, 2019: The man in charge by default in Algeria, army chief General Gaid Salah, gave an upbeat speech on 28 May, inviting the protest movement to negotiate a way out of the crisis. Days later, the constitutional court canceled the 4 July elections, two steps that were welcomed by most Algerians. Sadly, these two steps have not been followed by the practical steps needed to untangle this unprecedented crisis. Part of the problem is lack of political maturity from the military leadership, which has no skills to drive the transition. The military is frightened to take steps that are not codified in the constitution, a constitution that the people have simply rejected. The opposition put forward some ideas, but opposition figures, parties, organizations, NGOs, unions, etc. are not coordinated and have not been able to bring a unified approach to the way forward, prompting the General to virtually beg for some sense. So today, Algeria is a ship with no captain, even if it is tempting to believe that General Gaid Salah is in charge.
While everyone is debating the issues in separate silos, Algeria is in a state of deep freeze. In our best calculations, hundreds of companies are about to file for bankruptcy, with more than 900,000 workers facing imminent layoff. Dozens of CEOs are being investigated for corruption. Most have been banned from traveling abroad and got their passports confiscated. Bank accounts of enterprises have been frozen, putting thousands of companies in a state of disarray, unable to pay their workers and suppliers. Any delay in untangling this mess will lead to the collapse of the Algerian economy.
The lack of risk-taking from General Gaid Salah is further compounded by the entrenchment of the so-called Deep-State. The arrest of former shadowy intelligence officers Toufik and Tartag, who ran repressive under-cover operations may be a good step, but these men have built a dense network of operatives that have infiltrated all levels of society, from municipalities and public administrations, to even private and foreign companies, and there is strong certainty that those loyal to the former DRS intelligence are resisting change and will continue to counter any effort to bring Algeria into the 21st century. Furthermore, foreign meddling is inevitable, starting with former colonial power France, but also, and more dangerously countries like the aggressive United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Egypt, who will not allow for the rise of democracy in the MENA region. UAE even promised the Sudanese military up to $3 billion in aid and the result is a Sudanese military crackdown on protesters to kill democracy.
The way forward is not so complex, if the Algerian military leadership really has what it takes to take calculated risks. Firing the current unpopular Interim President and Prime Minister and replacing them by a transition committee is a sensible first step. Allowing a national conference bringing all stakeholders together is another step. Meanwhile, other smaller but very important steps must be taken to build confidence. For example, there is no more logic in keeping in prison people who have been jailed for their political views. Unless these steps are taken urgently, Algeria is headed toward a disaster.
