North Africa’s Security
Security | Defense | Terrorism
Gulf War Escalates as Energy Markets Reel and Regional Fronts Multiply
The war involving Iran, Israel, and the United States is expanding across the Middle East, with growing consequences for global energy markets and regional security. Disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on Gulf energy infrastructure have pushed oil prices higher and raised concerns about supply stability. As missile exchanges intensify and fighting spreads to Lebanon, world leaders are scrambling to assess the economic fallout and prevent further escalation.
SECURITY & DEFENSE
Sahel: Surging Jihadist Violence Batters the Sahel, Exposing Government Weakness
Jihadist violence has surged across the Sahel, with militants overrunning military bases, ambushing convoys, and forcing civilians to negotiate with armed groups for survival. Hardest hit are conflict corridors in Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, and northeastern Nigeria, where blockades and insecurity have left millions displaced or trapped in besieged communities.
Algeria Plans Major Military Budget Increase for 2026
Algeria’s government is set to boost its military budget to historic levels in 2026, with over $24 billion earmarked for defense spending. This unprecedented increase, outlined in the country’s draft finance law, reflects Algeria’s aim to reinforce security amid regional instability and border threats. The new funding will prioritize modernizing military equipment and strengthening operational readiness, underscoring the military’s central role in national policy.
Mali: Ongoing Attacks Prompt Longer Curfew in Western Mali
Kayes in western Mali will continue under a nighttime curfew throughout October, as authorities respond to a series of attacks by armed groups and work to limit the threat of insurgent violence.
Mali: Diplomatic Rift Widens as France Expels Malian Envoys, Halts Counterterrorism Ties
Diplomatic ties between Mali and France have sharply deteriorated after Mali detained a French national on coup-plotting charges, leading France to expel two Malian diplomats and suspend joint counterterrorism efforts. In response, Mali expelled five French embassy staff, ending a lengthy era of security cooperation between the two countries.
Niger Dissolves Hundreds of Private Security Firms in Major Industry Overhaul
Niger’s government has dissolved 400 private security firms under new regulations aimed at formalizing industry oversight and raising operational standards. The move leaves thousands of workers facing layoffs and signals a major shift toward stricter licensing, compliance, and government supervision in the sector.
Sahel: Drone Incident Escalates Diplomatic Rift on Algeria–Mali Border
Tensions between Algeria and Mali have deepened after Algeria rejected International Court of Justice jurisdiction over a disputed drone incident, halting legal mediation. The standoff, marked by sharp exchanges at the UN and ongoing suspension of diplomatic ties, underscores mounting mistrust and risks to regional stability in the Sahel.
Turkey: Erdogan’s Winning Strategy in Africa
Despite the wave of coups d’état in West Africa, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who had close ties to the ousted regimes of Guinea, Mali, and Niger, has successfully protected his country’s interests in the region. He has done so through a strategy that combines drone diplomacy with business interests.
Libya’s Fragile Peace Shaken Again by Local Violence
Tensions are flaring again in Libya, from deadly street battles in Tripoli’s suburbs to violent protests in Sabratha. The killing of a well-known militia leader and the death of a police officer days apart reveal a deeper unraveling—where everyday disputes turn into...
Jihadist Expansion Threatens Coastal West Africa
The Sahel is confronting an intensifying insurgency that continues to evolve in scale and complexity. Armed groups such as the Group for the Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM) and the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (EIGS) are adapting and adjusting their...
Sahel: Russia Replaces Wagner in Mali Under Pressure from Algeria, Touaregs Brace
With Wagner stepping aside, the Africa Corps is moving in, bringing structure and legitimacy to Moscow’s support for Bamako. Touareg leaders, fearing a more efficient and state-backed force, have begun testing quiet understandings with jihadist factions like GSIM. It’s not a formal alliance, but a sign of growing desperation in a region where alliances shift quickly and survival often overrides ideology.
INSURGENCIES & TERRORISM
Sahel: More terror attacks on civilians in Burkina Faso
Around 40 people have been killed in a fresh wave of attacks in Burkina Faso, in areas where jihadist attacks are rife, sources said on Friday. In the most recent violence, around 20 people were killed in a series of raids on villages in Burkina Faso's troubled north,...
Burkina Faso: Twenty civilians killed in two terror attacks in Koulpelogo
Around 20 people in east-central Burkina Faso have been killed in attacks by suspected jihadists, sources said on Friday. Armed men on Monday raided the village of Kaongo in the border province of Koulpelogo, killing at least 11 people including two women and...
Algeria says army officer killed in clash with Islamists
An Algerian army officer has been killed in a clash with suspected Islamists during an operation southwest of the capital, the defence ministry said on Thursday. The captain died Wednesday during the operation to capture "a group of terrorists" in the wooded region of...
Tunisia: Five killed in terror attack on Jewish community in Djerba
By Fethi Belaid and Akim Rezgui: Tunisia's small Jewish community was in shock and mourning Wednesday after a bloody shooting rampage in which a police officer killed five people outside Africa's oldest synagogue. The shooting Tuesday sparked mass panic during an...
Sahel: Clashes between Niger army and Boko Haram continue along border with Nigeria
Niger's army said its troops had killed around 20 jihadists and arrested 83 others in an operation against militants on its southeastern border with Nigeria. Troops supported by air power attacked jihadists who have been using Matari forest in Nigeria as a rear base...
Sahel: Death toll in Mali due to insecurity was up 54% in 2022 to nearly 1,300
The number of people killed in Mali continued to increase in 2022, a UN report said Wednesday, also linking more than a third of human rights violations to security forces. The UN mission in Mali, MINUSMA, was created in 2013 to help stabilise the country as it...
More releases of kidnapped persons in Sahel may signal easing of conflict between West and insurgents to focus on Russian threat
Photo: AQIM's Abu Ubaidah Youssef al-Annabi: Arezki's opinion: It may be too early to conclude that there is an easing of tension between Al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM) and France, in particular. But there are some tidbits of evidence that suggest a potential...
Niger secures release of kidnapped French journalist Olivier Dubois and American aid worker Jeffery Woodke
By Camille Laffont: A French journalist and a US aid worker who had been kidnapped by jihadists in the Sahel have been released, an AFP journalist saw Monday. French freelancer Olivier Dubois and American aid worker Jeffery Woodke emerged from a plane that landed at...
Sahel: Mali ratchets up communications on military offensive against insurgents
The Malian Armed Forces known as FAMA, have been increasing their communications to the media to showcase their alleged wins. Ever since the junta of Assimi Goita took over, there has been a greater emphasis on PR. Earlier this week, FAMA said that 153 "terrorists"...
Sahel: Red Cross workers kidnapped in central Mali
Two workers with the International Committee of the Red Cross were kidnapped in northern Mali on Saturday, the organisation said, the latest abduction in the troubled West African country. Kidnappings are common in Mali, which has been battling a security and...