Libya closes 2025 still caught in a web of armed rivalries, political fragmentation, and recurring violence that continually unsettle both governance and everyday life. Power remains divided between the UN-recognized Government of National Unity (GNU) in Tripoli and the Government of National Stability (GNS) in the east. Despite years of negotiations, neither side has managed to resolve the deadlock over national elections or merge the country’s core institutions.
On August 27, the coastal city of Al-Zawiya once again became a flashpoint. Rival armed groups clashed with heavy weapons in residential areas, leaving casualties and visible damage in their wake. These flare-ups confirm that militias continue to operate with significant autonomy, controlling local territories and responding to disputes through force rather than dialogue. Central authority remains weak, and ceasefires are fragile, often collapsing into new cycles of confrontation.
In Tripoli, periods of calm are regularly interrupted by sudden escalations. Political leaders, including Presidential Council Head Mohamed Menfi, have called repeatedly for renewed ceasefire commitments, most recently on August 31. Yet, behind these appeals, daily life in the capital is shaped by turf wars and power struggles. Frequent shootings, kidnappings, and road closures have forced residents to alter routines, with some families displaced and schools shuttered in high-risk districts.
By September, international concern deepened. Analysts and conflict specialists in Berlin urged urgent reforms and political compromise after warning of worsening instability. Their assessment was echoed later in the month during the UN Security Council’s 60-day briefing, which underscored persistent vulnerabilities: fragmented command structures, unchecked militia violence, and continued uncertainty surrounding election preparations.
Despite these headwinds, municipal elections went ahead in 34 cities during August, with voters turning out even in areas where armed groups attempted to obstruct the process. While this showed local resilience and civic engagement, the partial cancellations in western districts and the absence of elections across much of the east and south highlighted how far Libya remains from unified governance.
Reports from rights organizations paint a grim picture. Arbitrary arrests, extrajudicial killings, and forced disappearances remain widespread. Between March 2024 and September 2025, at least 20 detainees are believed to have died in custody for political reasons. Accountability remains elusive as judicial institutions struggle with interference and fear of reprisal.
Migrants and refugees are among the most vulnerable. Many fall victim to trafficking networks or abuse by security actors, facing extortion, detention, or violence. These conditions have turned parts of Libya into high-risk transit zones, perpetuating both humanitarian crises and broader insecurity.
As October progresses, the overall risk of renewed large-scale conflict remains elevated, even if no immediate escalation is visible. International mediators continue pressing all sides to honor the 2020 ceasefire, halt unilateral military operations, and focus on rebuilding unified national security institutions. Financial governance and security sector reform are widely seen as essential first steps toward credible national elections.
it is clear that Libya’s security environment remains fragile and volatile—marked by sudden violence and chronic mistrust. The country’s trajectory will depend on sustained diplomatic pressure, incremental institutional rebuilding, and credible accountability measures. Without these, localized clashes risk evolving into broader confrontations, keeping Libya locked in a cycle of instability and eroding public confidence in any path toward national reconciliation.
