At a recent Mediterranean Dialogues Forum in Naples, Mauritania’s Foreign Minister Mohamed Salem Ould Merzoug delivered a sobering assessment of how Africa’s security landscape is changing — and what that means for neighboring regions and international partners. Speaking on behalf of a regional working group of security agencies from North and West Africa, Ould Merzoug described a complex and rapidly evolving threat environment that blends terrorism, organized crime, and local conflicts into what he called “religious-front criminal enterprises.”
According to the minister, this hybridization marks a major shift from the ideological insurgencies of the 2000s and early 2010s. Terror groups once motivated primarily by extremist causes have increasingly adapted into self-sustaining, profit-driven networks. These groups now combine jihadist narratives with organized crime, financing themselves through illicit gold mining, fuel and livestock smuggling, taxation of trade routes, and even the use of cryptocurrencies to move funds beyond state oversight.
In Mauritania’s view, the problem is not limited to the Sahel. The foreign minister warned that the geography of violence is expanding southward toward coastal West African nations such as Benin, Togo, and Côte d’Ivoire, and westward toward Senegal and Guinea. Once-isolated insurgencies have matured into transnational networks capable of coordinating across borders and exploiting weak governance zones.
The analysis also highlights the increasing tactical sophistication of militant groups. They are combining guerrilla and conventional military methods, using armed drones, stolen armored vehicles, and foreign trainers. Their attacks target not only soldiers and police but also civilian collaborators, local officials, and critical economic infrastructure. In many cases, entire communities have been uprooted or stigmatized, particularly ethnic Fulani populations caught between state forces and insurgents.
Ould Merzoug linked the deepening crisis to environmental and social pressures. In regions where rainfall is scarce and arable land is shrinking, climate change is compounding tensions over access to water, grazing, and farmland. These conditions, he argued, make communities more vulnerable to recruitment by armed groups offering protection or income.
The Mauritanian-led study further points to a worrying fragmentation in counterterrorism coordination. While national armies and regional coalitions have carried out multiple campaigns against extremist factions, local militias and foreign mercenaries have also filled security vacuums — often inflaming ethnic rivalries and diverting weapons to private conflicts.
Across several countries, security officials note the rise of “gray zones” — areas effectively beyond government control — where jihadist, criminal, and self-defense groups coexist and compete for influence. These territories are becoming incubators for hybrid warfare, illicit trade, and parallel economies that undermine state authority.
The report underscores that Africa’s security challenges are intertwined with economic survival, governance failures, environmental stress, and the global flow of untraceable digital currencies. As Mauritania’s top diplomat put it, addressing these threats requires more than military action — it demands a coordinated response that integrates security, climate resilience, and economic inclusion across the continent.
