A recent Fitch Solutions report, “Consumption and Household Income in Tunisia,” published October 22, 2025, finds that Tunisia’s average household purchasing power has declined significantly since 2019. The report uses 2019—the year President Kaïs Saïed was first elected—as a reference point for its analysis of the policy impacts over the last six years, covering multiple administrations under the same presidency.
According to Fitch Solutions, real purchasing power in 2025 is down by 11.1% compared to 2019 after accounting for inflation. The report also questions the effectiveness of recent government promises targeting social policies and vulnerable populations. If current trends continue, Fitch projects that real purchasing power will not recover to 2019 levels by the end of President Saïed’s second term in 2028.
The findings highlight a structural imbalance: while the average GDP growth rate is about 2% annually, household consumption is rising at a higher rate of 3.8% per year. This trend indicates that consumption is outpacing both growth and savings, suggesting that many households are spending beyond their means.
Unemployment has increased compared to levels before 2019, despite ongoing public claims about prioritizing social measures. The Fitch report notes persistent weaknesses in employment policy, limited incentives for business creation, and questions the suitability of state-promoted initiatives such as community enterprises.
Fitch’s analysis of household spending patterns differs from national statistics, showing that nearly 9% of household expenses go to non-essential items such as tobacco, alcohol, restaurants, and internet, while spending on education is only 1.2%. The report also singles out high per capita spending on footwear and an annual increase in tobacco-related expenses.
Poverty rates remain high, with only 2% of households classified as high income, while 95% fall below an annual household income of $10,000. Around 20% of households are classified as poor, with annual incomes below $5,000. The report highlights the particular vulnerability of older adults, people with reduced mobility, women, and Generation Z, citing significant socio-economic disparities. The analysis concludes by suggesting that these challenges cannot be addressed through enforcement or rhetoric alone, but require targeted, credible public policies
