Season 1, Episode 5
The Sahel 1Q2019 Update
Things are moving fast in the Sahel. Libya’s LNA southwestern offensive has increased instability in parts of the Sahel and the Sahara. In Mali, insurgencies and war are accelerating. And in Nigeria, Boko Haram and its sponsor, IS, are wrecking havoc. Arezki Daoud and Alessandro Bruno of MEA Risk LLC hold an unscripted chat on all of that.
Listen
The situation in the Sahel is getting worse. Efforts from Libya’s LNA to clean up the country’s southwestern regions, anchored in the Sahel zonem and near the Libya-Algeria border adds more trouble to Algeria’s military, and pushes insurgents and foreign militants to the Chad. In Mali, there has been an escalation of violence, with killings from insurgencies and communal wars dominating the landscape. Northeastern Nigeria is set to become another exporter of terror to the Sahel, as Boko Haram is reorganizing and pushing the populations of Lake Chad to move to the Sahel. Northwest Nigeria is not secure either, with bandits wrecking havoc on the populations stretching from almost central Nigeria to into Niger Republic.
Hosts & Guests
Arezki Daoud
Alessandro Bruno
Get This Episode
Related Analyses and Podcast Episodes
Algeria and Niger Relaunch Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline After Diplomatic Freeze
Algeria and Niger have ended months of strained relations and announced the operational launch of the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline, a 4,000-kilometer project linking Nigerian gas fields to European markets through Niger and Algeria. The move signals both a diplomatic reset and a renewed push to position North Africa as a strategic energy corridor.
Algeria and Niger Restore Ties, Signaling a Shift in Sahel Diplomacy
Algeria and Niger restored diplomatic relations after nearly a year of tensions triggered by regional security disputes. The return of ambassadors and a planned high-level visit signal renewed cooperation centered on energy development, border security, and regional trade. The rapprochement highlights the strategic importance of the Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline and reflects broader efforts to stabilize partnerships across the Sahel amid ongoing security and economic pressures.
Niger: Roadside Bomb Kills Civilians Near Baroua in Diffa Region
A mixed passenger and cargo vehicle hit an improvised explosive device near Baroua in Niger’s Diffa region, killing at least eight people and injuring others. The attack highlights how mines and roadside bombs are tightening the squeeze on civilians across the Sahel, disrupting travel, trade, and basic access to services.
Flashpoints: In Southern Chad, A Local Clash Reveals Deeper Fragility
Clashes near the town of Korbol in southern Chad on January 13, 2026, left soldiers and rebel fighters dead after the army issued a 48‑hour ultimatum to the Movement for Peace, Reconciliation and Development. The incident barely registered internationally, yet it captures a familiar cycle in Chad’s politics: armed groups rejecting disarmament, a government relying on military pressure, and border regions absorbing the costs. Looking at Korbol helps explain how under‑reported local flashpoints quietly sustain instability across the country.
Local Conflicts: State-Imposed Land Pact Struggles to Calm Tensions in Brakna, Mauritania
Authorities in Mauritania’s Brakna region have forced a truce between rival farming communities after deadly clashes over fertile land in the Waalo zone. The agreement, signed in Aleg under the authority of the regional governor, halts direct confrontations and routes all complaints through the administration, but accusations of bias and political interference show that trust in the state’s land governance remains badly shaken.
Niger Airport Attack Deepens Sahel’s Security and Diplomatic Strains
An overnight assault on the air base embedded in Niamey’s international airport has pushed Niger’s crisis into the capital, wounding soldiers and damaging civilian aircraft. The United States has ordered non‑essential diplomatic staff to leave, while other governments tighten “avoid all travel” warnings, signaling a broader reassessment of risk. As Niamey accuses foreign states and militants claim responsibility, the episode underscores how security, regime politics, and great‑power rivalry now collide in the Sahel.
Defense: Mauritania and Spain Use Naval Exercises to Bolster Atlantic Maritime Security
Mauritania and Spain have carried out joint naval exercises off Nouadhibou, built around a port visit by the Spanish patrol vessel Furor and focused on navigation safety and operational coordination. The drills, paired with visits to Mauritanian military installations, signal a tightening maritime partnership in Atlantic waters that are central to security, fisheries, and migration routes. Officials in Nouakchott present the cooperation as part of a broader effort to strengthen maritime stability and protect shared interests at sea.
Mali: Gold Mining Site in Sikasso Region Hit by Armed Group
An armed attack on the Morila gold mine in southern Mali caused material damage and forced a temporary suspension of operations. Security forces were deployed to regain control of the site, and employees held during the incident were released unharmed. The attack highlights ongoing security risks facing economic infrastructure across the Sahel.
Burkina Faso: Deep Supply Weaknesses in Ouagadougou Amid Seasonal Butane Shortages
Each year between December and January, Ouagadougou faces a renewed shortage of butane gas just as household demand peaks. The recurring tension on supply, linked to limited stocks, uneven distribution and a shortage of empty cylinders for refilling, is forcing many families to fall back on charcoal and firewood, with financial, health and environmental consequences.
Sahel: Jihadist Attack Kills Local Prefect in Southwestern Niger
A jihadist attack in southwestern Niger has killed the prefect of Torodi along with several members of his family, marking the first time a sitting prefect has been killed in an assault in his own district. The attack underscores growing insecurity near the border with Burkina Faso, where violence has led to school closures, population displacement, and a prolonged state of emergency.
Flashpoints: Benin-Niger Tensions Deepen as Diplomatic Relations Deteriorate
Relations between Benin and Niger have entered a more confrontational phase following reciprocal diplomatic expulsions, reflecting deeper political and security disagreements. Since Niger’s military takeover, diverging regional alignments and growing mutual suspicion have complicated dialogue, with consequences extending beyond diplomacy to trade flows, border communities, and regional stability in West Africa.
Burkina Faso Faces New Security Tensions Amid Coup Allegations
Burkina Faso saw a surge in political tension after warnings of a possible destabilization attempt triggered overnight mobilizations in Ouagadougou and Bobo-Dioulasso. Security forces placed several military sites on alert as arrests were reported and social media claims pointed to internal and external actors. While the scale of the threat remains unclear, the episode reflects persistent instability under the country’s military transition and raises questions about internal cohesion, governance, and the long-term outlook for political order.




