Africa Bound

Across Sudan, Libya, Yemen, and the Maghreb, the United Arab Emirates is encountering rising diplomatic friction as regional powers push back against policies seen as destabilizing or misaligned with their security interests. The UAE is facing growing tensions involving Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Algeria, while sustained scrutiny over Sudan and Yemen is reshaping perceptions of Emirati influence.

Egypt’s expanding posture in Somalia and its firm stance on Sudan reveal a coherent security doctrine taking shape along its southern and southeastern perimeter. Cairo is drawing explicit red lines against state collapse, territorial fragmentation, and the emergence of parallel authorities in strategically sensitive areas of the Horn of Africa and the Red Sea basin.

Egypt has expanded the scope of its military and security engagement in Somalia following Israel’s recognition of Somaliland, a self-declared breakaway region on the Gulf of Aden. Egyptian officials view the move as part of a broader shift in Horn of Africa geopolitics that could affect Red Sea security, Nile water negotiations, and regional power balances.

A low-profile but consequential rivalry between the United Arab Emirates and Qatar is reshaping access to the Red Sea. Through competing alliances, port investments, and security partnerships, both Gulf states are extending their influence across the Horn of Africa. At the center of this struggle lies Somaliland, whose strategic coastline, port infrastructure, and political status have become critical factors in a broader contest involving regional and extra-regional powers.