Mali’s Problems in Four Minutes |
Opinion By Arezki Daoud:
Yesterday, we reported how the Tuareg community in northern Mali has rejected the latest constitutional referendum imposed by the ruling military junta in Bamako. Not only the constitution gives tremendous power to the president, which clearly is a hint that junta colonel chief Assimi Goita plans to stay in power until he is removed by another coup, but the CSP, a political and military movement grouping various Tuareg factions in northern Mali, has alleged widespread fraud during voting over the past weekend. The CSP has been largely avoiding armed confrontation as per a 2015 agreement, with the hope that some political process would take shape that would improve the security and economic climate in the northern provinces. None of that happened and now another armed rebellion involving the Tuaregs cannot be ruled out. As such, one also cannot dismiss the possibility of more Jihadi activity under the pretext that the junta has not delivered and is making things worse. Among the grievances reported by the CSP is that armed groups prevented the vote from taking place in numerous places in the north. CSP even went so far as to allege that no voting took place anywhere in the north.
So today, the 23rd of June 2023, the junta released the result of the election and surprise, surprise, 97% of the referendum votes were cast in favor of the changes, with voter turnout put at 39.4%. Assimi Goita wants power so badly that now he has it. Let’s see what he is going to do with it.
Many people tend to argue that the northerners, the Tuareg tribes, would raise concern no matter what the outcome given the animosity that has long existed between the Tuaregs and the central government in the south. But consider the fact that the grievances do not come from the Tuaregs only.
The influential religious leader, Imam Mahmoud Dicko, who is based in the south, has also expressed his fierce opposition to the new constitution. The Imam, who has a strong base of followers, has been particularly vocal these past days, likely creating major headaches for the junta leaders. Just before the election, Imam Dicko called his supporters to boycott the referendum. His words were very sharp. He told his supporters: “I never collaborate with those who confiscated the revolution of the people, and who are in the process of gagging this same people (…) [The reign of the military] is already over (…) I prefer to die than to live a traitor.” These are words that do not bode well for the regime of Goita going forward. Imam Dicko is not the only one opposed to the new constitution. Most religious figures clearly oppose it for a different reason than the Tuaregs. The conservatives despise the mention of secularism as a principal element of the new constitution. But the Imam went as far as attacking the government on the basis of being ruled by the military. He questioned, in his pre-election speech “What rule of law [are we talking about] in a country where justice is put at the service of the military to imprison people?” The reaction from the junta against Imam Dicko did not take long. The authorities withdrew his diplomatic passport in an effort to contain him, prompting his supporters to warn of unrest should “something happen to Dicko.”
So for the military regime in Mali, what is the way forward? Clearly getting the Russians to come for their rescue in the war against terror groups is not going to be enough. The ousting of the French military was such an embarrassing moment for the French that it is expected that Paris would put all the resources it has to undermine the regime in Bamako. After all, there is an unspoken war between France and Russia in the Sahel, and the regime in Mali is entirely incompetent to manage the crisis today. Between the Jihadists, the Tuaregs, the conservatives, and the French looking for revenge, one wonders how long Colonel Goita will last.
